NBA games

WSH @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
113–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH20273531113
BKN46342126127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home BKN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley S 45 27 3 2
Justin Champagnie S 22 21 9 2
Tristan Vukcevic S 20 14 2 2
Sharife Cooper 29 14 5 3
Jamir Watkins S 45 13 1 1
Bub Carrington S 22 11 2 4
Anthony Gill 28 9 5 2
Keshon Gilbert 29 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 23 6 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 19 9 4
Noah Clowney S 27 18 3 2
Danny Wolf 20 16 7 6
Nolan Traore S 24 15 3 4
Nic Claxton S 28 11 5 4
Ben Saraf 24 10 4 4
Terance Mann 19 6 4 5
Drake Powell 22 5 2 2
Egor Demin S 26 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
15%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
5 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
8 Nolan Traore BKN
7%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
10 Terance Mann BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
14%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 23.5 6.3 3.4
2 Alex Sarr WSH 19.2 7.9 2.8
3 Kyshawn George WSH 17.4 5.6 5.4
4 Tre Johnson WSH 15.0 2.6 3.0
5 Bub Carrington WSH 14.5 3.1 5.1
6 Egor Demin BKN 12.7 3.1 2.8
7 Noah Clowney BKN 12.6 5.6 1.9
8 Nolan Traore BKN 12.2 2.8 4.1
9 Nic Claxton BKN 11.3 6.9 3.2
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.2 3.2 1.6
11 Will Riley WSH 10.0 2.9 2.0
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.9 3.9 2.4
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.7 5.4 1.4
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.9 7.2 2.0
15 Danny Wolf BKN 8.6 5.2 2.0
16 Terance Mann BKN 7.6 2.7 2.1
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.7 2.9 1.0
18 Ben Saraf BKN 6.5 2.1 2.7
19 Drake Powell BKN 6.4 2.0 1.6
20 Jamir Watkins WSH 6.4 4.8 1.4
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.6 2.2 0.9
22 Ochai Agbaji BKN 4.6 1.8 0.6
23 Sharife Cooper WSH 4.5 1.7 1.3
24 Josh Minott BKN 3.6 1.5 0.7
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.3 2.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.