NBA games

MEM @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
115–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM36282328115
POR25433829135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home POR
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Spencer 26 18 0 5
GG Jackson S 27 15 3 2
Jaylen Wells S 27 13 3 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 28 13 6 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 22 13 3 6
Walter Clayton Jr. 22 11 3 4
Javon Small 22 11 5 3
Cedric Coward S 25 11 8 1
Taylor Hendricks 21 5 5 0
Jahmai Mashack 20 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 28 23 2 2
Jrue Holiday S 25 20 5 7
Toumani Camara S 30 15 4 3
Robert Williams III 19 13 7 2
Donovan Clingan S 25 13 17 0
Rayan Rupert 12 12 1 0
Vit Krejci 23 11 0 1
Scoot Henderson 21 11 5 9
Sidy Cissoko 25 9 1 2
Blake Wesley 15 4 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Olivier-Maxence Prosper · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:31 Q1
"Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
14%
2 Deni Avdija POR
12%
3 Jerami Grant POR
11%
4 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
9%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
9 GG Jackson MEM
8%
10 Kris Murray POR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
38%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.0 6.8 6.2
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.5 5.0 3.7
3 Jerami Grant POR 16.4 3.5 2.7
4 Cedric Coward MEM 14.2 4.9 3.5
5 Toumani Camara POR 13.0 5.7 2.5
6 Cam Spencer MEM 12.8 3.0 6.1
7 GG Jackson MEM 12.4 4.8 2.0
8 Donovan Clingan POR 12.4 9.9 2.4
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.1 3.4 1.6
10 Jrue Holiday POR 11.7 3.7 4.7
11 Sidy Cissoko POR 9.0 3.2 1.6
12 Kris Murray POR 8.2 3.9 1.7
13 Robert Williams III POR 7.6 7.6 1.4
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.3 2.7 2.2
15 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 6.4 3.0 1.0
16 Blake Wesley POR 6.4 2.3 3.5
17 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 6.4 1.9 3.0
18 Kyle Anderson MEM 5.6 3.0 2.5
19 Javon Small MEM 5.5 2.1 3.4
20 Vit Krejci POR 5.1 1.4 1.2
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.3 0.9
22 Rayan Rupert POR 4.6 2.0 1.1
23 Taylor Hendricks MEM 3.8 2.1 0.7
24 Jahmai Mashack MEM 2.7 1.4 0.9
25 Yang Hansen POR 2.2 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.