NBA games

NO @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
119–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO34223330119
MIN32382421115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MIN
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 34 30 9 5
Zion Williamson S 32 29 4 1
Trey Murphy III S 37 26 6 5
Derik Queen S 33 17 8 3
Bryce McGowens 28 11 1 4
Yves Missi 15 2 4 1
Jeremiah Fears 28 2 1 4
Herbert Jones S 23 2 4 5
Micah Peavy 3 0 0 0
Karlo Matkovic 7 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 35 5 4
Julius Randle S 37 24 8 7
Bones Hyland 30 20 3 2
Rudy Gobert S 33 12 16 2
Naz Reid 25 7 3 3
Jaden McDaniels S 22 6 1 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 6 3 2
Johnny Juzang 10 3 1 0
Joan Beringer 5 2 2 0
Jaylen Clark 14 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
15%
2 Zion Williamson NO
14%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
11%
5 Julius Randle MIN
9%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
8 Derik Queen NO
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
6%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
17%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.7 5.6 4.2
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.1 6.2 5.5
3 Trey Murphy III NO 21.4 4.2 4.3
4 Saddiq Bey NO 20.5 5.6 3.1
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 19.8 4.4 4.0
6 Zion Williamson NO 19.2 7.7 4.2
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.2 4.6 4.8
8 Naz Reid MIN 14.6 6.9 3.1
9 Derik Queen NO 12.5 6.4 4.1
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.7 10.9 1.5
11 Jeremiah Fears NO 8.7 3.3 1.9
12 Herbert Jones NO 8.4 3.2 2.5
13 Bones Hyland MIN 7.5 2.9 2.5
14 Jordan Poole NO 7.3 1.6 1.8
15 Yves Missi NO 6.6 6.6 1.4
16 Bryce McGowens NO 5.3 1.5 1.0
17 Enrique Freeman MIN 4.9 2.5 0.7
18 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.7 2.9 0.7
19 Micah Peavy NO 4.6 1.9 1.0
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.7 2.0 0.9
21 Joan Beringer MIN 3.7 2.8 0.5
22 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.4 1.8 0.8
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.6 1.6 0.5
24 Kevon Looney NO 2.5 4.6 0.9
25 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.