NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
99–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2918183499
MIL23312922105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 37 22 2 8
Pascal Siakam S 33 19 6 4
Jarace Walker 30 15 9 1
Aaron Nesmith S 27 12 1 1
T.J. McConnell 14 8 2 6
Micah Potter 16 8 5 1
Ben Sheppard 16 6 1 1
Jay Huff S 23 5 3 1
Johnny Furphy S 31 2 8 3
Kam Jones 13 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 34 23 7 8
Ryan Rollins S 34 22 4 4
Bobby Portis 26 21 6 1
AJ Green S 37 14 3 2
Myles Turner S 27 9 10 2
Gary Trent Jr. 19 7 1 2
Pete Nance 18 5 1 1
Jericho Sims S 31 4 15 4
Gary Harris 14 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
3 Myles Turner MIL
10%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
6 Jarace Walker IND
9%
7 Bobby Portis MIL
8%
8 Kam Jones IND
7%
9 Jay Huff IND
7%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
49%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.3 6.5 5.1
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.0 5.0 5.8
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.2 4.0 8.3
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.7 5.3 7.5
5 Myles Turner MIL 16.2 6.4 1.8
6 Bobby Portis MIL 15.0 7.2 3.0
7 Jarace Walker IND 14.8 4.5 2.7
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.0 4.2 2.9
9 AJ Green MIL 11.2 2.7 2.0
10 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 4.0 2.1
11 Jay Huff IND 8.0 4.4 1.1
12 Pete Nance MIL 7.3 3.1 1.1
13 T.J. McConnell IND 6.9 1.8 4.1
14 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 6.4 1.4 1.3
15 Johnny Furphy IND 6.3 5.1 1.9
16 Ben Sheppard IND 4.9 1.4 1.2
17 Micah Potter IND 4.7 3.1 1.0
18 Jericho Sims MIL 3.4 2.6 0.8
19 Ousmane Dieng MIL 3.2 1.5 1.2
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.1 1.4 0.9
21 Gary Harris MIL 3.0 1.2 1.1
22 Kam Jones IND 2.8 1.4 1.4
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.1 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.