NBA games

MIA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
96–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2930152296
BOS1523362498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BOS
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 38 26 6 0
Norman Powell S 35 24 3 4
Bam Adebayo S 35 16 7 1
Davion Mitchell S 30 13 2 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 31 11 7 7
Simone Fontecchio 19 2 2 0
Kel'el Ware 10 2 5 0
Dru Smith 19 2 4 1
Nikola Jovic 6 0 0 1
Myron Gardner 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 33 29 7 2
Payton Pritchard 36 24 1 1
Derrick White S 41 21 3 5
Nikola Vucevic 28 11 12 4
Baylor Scheierman 19 5 7 2
Hugo Gonzalez 16 2 3 0
Sam Hauser S 35 2 3 2
Luka Garza S 10 2 3 0
Neemias Queta S 22 2 11 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 24-foot three pointer (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic BOS
9%
2 Norman Powell MIA
9%
3 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
6 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
7 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
8 Luka Garza BOS
6%
9 Simone Fontecchio MIA
6%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
39%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.9 8.9 4.8
2 Payton Pritchard BOS 21.4 3.8 5.8
3 Nikola Vucevic BOS 20.5 8.0 4.4
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.1 10.0 3.1
5 Norman Powell MIA 19.2 3.9 2.7
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.6 4.8 3.1
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.6 6.4 4.5
8 Derrick White BOS 15.1 4.7 6.8
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.0 5.3 3.8
10 Sam Hauser BOS 13.0 4.7 2.2
11 Neemias Queta BOS 11.4 9.2 2.5
12 Luka Garza BOS 9.6 4.3 1.8
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.2 2.6 5.5
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.1 4.5 1.7
15 Kel'el Ware MIA 7.3 4.1 0.7
16 Dru Smith MIA 6.9 3.5 2.9
17 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.7 4.3 1.9
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.8 2.7 1.2
19 Myron Gardner MIA 5.0 3.6 0.9
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.0 2.3 2.4
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.9 3.4 1.0
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.8 2.9 0.9
23 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.1 2.1 1.1
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.4 1.1 0.4
25 Amari Williams BOS 2.4 2.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.