NBA games

PHI @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
115–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27322828115
LAL21303434119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 39 35 7 7
Tyrese Maxey S 37 26 0 13
VJ Edgecombe S 39 19 10 2
Dominick Barlow S 26 13 3 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 8 4 3
Trendon Watford 16 6 2 2
Quentin Grimes 27 4 0 2
Justin Edwards 5 2 1 0
Adem Bona 11 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves 25 35 6 2
LeBron James S 37 17 4 10
Jake LaRavia S 23 14 0 2
Rui Hachimura 35 14 7 1
Luka Doncic S 16 10 4 2
Deandre Ayton S 20 10 6 0
Marcus Smart S 31 7 4 5
Jarred Vanderbilt 23 6 6 1
Maxi Kleber 26 4 4 4
Dalton Knecht 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot (VJ Edgecombe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
9%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
5 Paul George PHI
9%
6 Luka Doncic LAL
8%
7 Joel Embiid PHI
7%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI
7%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
48%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.1 8.3 5.8
2 Luka Doncic LAL 28.4 8.0 8.9
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.5 3.8 7.4
4 Austin Reaves LAL 24.0 4.7 5.4
5 LeBron James LAL 22.9 5.8 6.5
6 Paul George PHI 16.2 4.3 4.0
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.4 4.5 2.3
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.1 5.3 4.6
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.9 7.9 1.3
10 Marcus Smart LAL 11.0 2.9 2.1
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.9 3.3 1.3
12 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.4 3.5 2.8
13 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.3 4.7 1.5
14 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.5 4.0 2.0
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.4 3.7 0.9
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.2 5.9 1.0
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.5 3.8 1.5
18 Adem Bona PHI 5.1 4.6 0.7
19 Charles Bassey PHI 4.9 7.4 0.8
20 Drew Timme LAL 4.7 1.7 1.1
21 Trendon Watford PHI 4.4 2.5 1.5
22 Justin Edwards PHI 3.5 1.3 0.8
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.4 1.2 0.6
24 Bronny James LAL 3.1 1.0 0.9
25 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.9 1.9 0.7
26 Johni Broome PHI 2.7 1.7 0.7
27 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 2.6 0.6 0.8
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.6 0.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.