NBA games

GS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
101–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS25341725101
PHX2926271597

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHX
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pat Spencer S 32 20 6 4
Gui Santos S 36 18 4 7
De'Anthony Melton S 25 17 2 1
Gary Payton II 19 15 8 1
Al Horford 28 13 4 4
Will Richard 27 7 3 2
Moses Moody S 31 6 8 1
Draymond Green S 24 5 5 1
Quinten Post 6 0 2 1
Brandin Podziemski 12 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 35 24 6 1
Grayson Allen S 33 21 5 4
Mark Williams S 23 11 10 0
Collin Gillespie S 33 11 3 4
Royce O'Neale S 27 9 1 5
Oso Ighodaro 25 6 5 1
Jordan Goodwin 29 6 2 2
Ryan Dunn 12 5 2 1
Jamaree Bouyea 20 4 3 4
Isaiah Livers 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Mark Williams makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Grayson Allen PHX
14%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
12%
4 Royce O'Neale PHX
11%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Moses Moody GS
8%
8 Gui Santos GS
8%
9 Al Horford GS
8%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
23%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dillon Brooks PHX 19.6 5.0 2.5
2 Grayson Allen PHX 18.5 3.3 5.5
3 Collin Gillespie PHX 15.6 3.9 4.8
4 De'Anthony Melton GS 14.9 4.3 3.5
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.1 5.4 5.2
6 Mark Williams PHX 12.4 8.3 1.6
7 Moses Moody GS 12.2 4.0 1.4
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.4 3.7 3.0
9 Draymond Green GS 9.0 5.3 4.4
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.0 4.7 2.4
11 Al Horford GS 8.5 5.0 2.7
12 Gui Santos GS 8.1 3.7 2.0
13 Quinten Post GS 7.6 4.2 1.1
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.7 5.0 1.9
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 6.3 2.4 1.7
16 Will Richard GS 6.0 2.5 2.2
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.9 2.5 1.0
18 Gary Payton II GS 4.6 2.2 1.0
19 Malevy Leons GS 4.4 2.7 0.8
20 Pat Spencer GS 3.9 1.9 1.7
21 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.6 2.1 0.9
22 Koby Brea PHX 3.0 1.3 1.5
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.2 1.3 0.4
24 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.6 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.