NBA games

SA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
135–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA38362536135
DAL35283327123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DAL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 29 11 6
Harrison Barnes S 34 19 1 3
Stephon Castle 22 18 7 6
De'Aaron Fox S 32 17 3 7
Julian Champagnie S 27 14 7 1
Devin Vassell S 30 12 7 3
Keldon Johnson 19 12 6 4
Dylan Harper 19 9 5 2
Jordan McLaughlin 4 3 1 0
Carter Bryant 18 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 39 32 6 4
Naji Marshall S 39 32 6 3
Max Christie S 38 20 3 4
Daniel Gafford S 33 16 10 2
Caleb Martin S 32 8 4 1
Klay Thompson 20 5 2 1
Miles Kelly 9 5 2 1
Ryan Nembhard 17 5 3 7
Moussa Cisse 12 0 5 0
Dwight Powell 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Max Christie makes driving layup (Daniel Gafford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
15%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
3 Stephon Castle SA
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Max Christie DAL
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Caleb Martin DAL
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
19%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 24.1 7.4 4.5
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.1 11.3 2.5
3 Naji Marshall DAL 20.3 7.1 4.7
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.9 4.0 7.6
5 Stephon Castle SA 16.5 4.6 7.3
6 Brandon Williams DAL 15.6 3.6 2.9
7 Max Christie DAL 15.1 3.6 2.4
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.8 4.7 2.2
9 Dylan Harper SA 11.8 4.2 3.4
10 Julian Champagnie SA 11.3 5.2 1.8
11 Klay Thompson DAL 10.8 2.7 1.8
12 Devin Vassell SA 10.2 3.4 1.5
13 Caleb Martin DAL 8.9 4.7 3.3
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.2 7.7 1.1
15 Harrison Barnes SA 7.8 3.0 1.7
16 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.5 6.2 0.7
17 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.3 1.6 3.7
18 Dwight Powell DAL 5.2 5.7 1.2
19 Carter Bryant SA 4.5 2.5 0.6
20 Stanley Umude SA 3.9 1.4 0.6
21 Miles Kelly DAL 3.7 1.7 0.9
22 Harrison Ingram SA 3.1 1.8 0.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 1.9 1.1 0.6
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.