NBA games

CHA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
109–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA29323018109
HOU2623262499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home HOU
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 32 24 4 2
LaMelo Ball S 29 20 6 4
Miles Bridges S 32 18 6 4
Josh Green 23 14 1 2
Brandon Miller S 21 11 3 1
Moussa Diabate S 29 7 12 4
Sion James 22 6 2 0
Tre Mann 17 5 5 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner 19 2 4 1
Grant Williams 16 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 31 31 3 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 17 7 2
Amen Thompson S 33 8 5 7
Alperen Sengun S 28 7 9 5
Reed Sheppard 22 7 2 0
Clint Capela 17 6 5 0
Josh Okogie S 21 6 1 0
Jeff Green 8 6 2 1
Isaiah Crawford 16 5 1 2
JD Davison 8 4 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Moussa Diabate assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
9 Coby White CHA
7%
10 Tari Eason HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
31%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 24.8 5.1 5.3
2 Brandon Miller CHA 23.7 6.0 3.7
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.2 10.2 6.0
4 Coby White CHA 21.0 4.1 5.1
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.7 6.5 3.8
6 Amen Thompson HOU 16.9 8.0 6.9
7 LaMelo Ball CHA 16.6 4.2 6.4
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.3 6.1 2.3
9 Miles Bridges CHA 13.2 4.8 2.7
10 Tari Eason HOU 11.7 6.6 1.8
11 Reed Sheppard HOU 10.7 2.8 2.1
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.0 8.5 1.7
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 7.8 6.1 1.0
14 Josh Okogie HOU 6.3 3.2 1.2
15 Grant Williams CHA 5.6 3.5 1.2
16 Clint Capela HOU 4.7 4.9 0.7
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.5 4.1 0.7
18 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.2 2.1 0.7
19 Sion James CHA 4.2 3.1 1.6
20 Josh Green CHA 4.1 2.0 1.1
21 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.9 2.0 0.8
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.7 1.2 0.9
23 JD Davison HOU 3.1 1.6 1.0
24 Tre Mann CHA 3.1 0.9 0.8
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.9 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.