Thursday, February 5, 2026

CHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final

107–123

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CHI	25	33	30	19	107
TOR	33	32	35	23	123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHI) games this season

CHI away

home TOR

24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Anfernee Simons S	32	22	2	3	8/15	6/13	-10
Matas Buzelis S	33	18	6	3	7/11	2/6	-19
Guerschon Yabusele	33	15	11	3	6/11	3/6	-4
Jaden Ivey S	33	13	4	6	5/12	3/5	-9
Jalen Smith S	24	13	9	1	6/11	0/3	-6
Isaac Okoro S	30	10	2	1	3/8	0/4	-21
Patrick Williams	25	9	1	2	3/12	3/8	-7
Mac McClung	13	4	1	1	2/7	0/2	-7
Yuki Kawamura	12	3	2	7	1/4	1/2	3

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Brandon Ingram S	35	33	6	6	12/20	5/9	7
Immanuel Quickley S	31	24	2	5	9/20	3/11	14
Sandro Mamukelashvili	23	17	5	1	5/9	4/6	3
Collin Murray-Boyles S	37	17	5	4	8/9	0/0	20
Scottie Barnes S	32	13	6	7	6/11	1/3	10
Ja'Kobe Walter S	31	12	5	2	6/9	0/1	14
Jamal Shead	22	3	4	8	1/3	1/2	7
Jamison Battle	14	2	1	1	1/3	0/1	7
Gradey Dick	12	2	1	1	1/3	0/1	-3
Alijah Martin	2	0	0	0	0/0	0/0	1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Brandon Ingram · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1

"Brandon Ingram makes two point shot (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Scottie Barnes TOR

20%

2 Brandon Ingram TOR

15%

3 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR

13%

4 Josh Giddey CHI

12%

5 Immanuel Quickley TOR

12%

6 Matas Buzelis CHI

10%

7 Isaac Okoro CHI

10%

8 Jalen Smith CHI

9 Anfernee Simons CHI

10 Jaden Ivey CHI

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

Dunk

Free Throw

21%

Jumper

25%

Layup

40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Brandon Ingram	TOR	23.4	5.2	3.9	33	6	6
2	Scottie Barnes	TOR	21.6	9.6	6.7	13	6	7
3	Immanuel Quickley	TOR	20.0	5.4	6.2	24	2	5
4	Josh Giddey	CHI	17.1	6.4	7.9	—	—	—
5	Matas Buzelis	CHI	16.6	5.5	3.3	18	6	3
6	Sandro Mamukelashvili	TOR	16.4	5.8	2.8	17	5	1
7	Anfernee Simons	CHI	16.1	3.2	2.1	22	2	3
8	Tre Jones	CHI	13.0	3.4	6.4	—	—	—
9	Jalen Smith	CHI	12.6	7.6	1.6	13	9	1
10	Collin Murray-Boyles	TOR	11.4	7.0	3.3	17	5	4
11	Isaac Okoro	CHI	9.9	2.9	1.4	10	2	1
12	Jamal Shead	TOR	9.0	2.6	5.2	3	4	8
13	Patrick Williams	CHI	8.1	3.4	1.3	9	1	2
14	Gradey Dick	TOR	7.1	2.8	1.0	2	1	1
15	Ja'Kobe Walter	TOR	6.6	2.3	1.4	12	5	2
16	Jaden Ivey	CHI	6.4	2.1	1.1	13	4	6
17	Yuki Kawamura	CHI	5.9	3.7	4.0	3	2	7
18	Mac McClung	CHI	5.3	1.9	0.7	4	1	1
19	A.J. Lawson	TOR	3.3	1.3	0.5	—	—	—
20	Jamison Battle	TOR	3.1	1.3	0.6	2	1	1
21	Alijah Martin	TOR	2.7	1.1	0.6	0	0	0
22	Jonathan Mogbo	TOR	2.1	1.8	0.5	—	—	—
23	Guerschon Yabusele	CHI	1.8	1.5	0.3	15	11	3
24	Garrett Temple	TOR	1.7	0.6	0.4	—	—	—

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.