NBA games

UTAH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
119–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH31293623119
ATL30313129121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home ATL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Collier S 48 25 7 11
Ace Bailey S 40 20 6 1
Brice Sensabaugh 30 18 4 2
Lauri Markkanen S 23 18 5 1
Kyle Filipowski S 28 15 17 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 23 14 4 0
Cody Williams S 38 5 4 2
Oscar Tshiebwe 10 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jock Landale S 32 26 11 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 23 2 5
Jalen Johnson S 39 22 16 15
Corey Kispert 25 20 2 0
Dyson Daniels S 35 11 6 6
Asa Newell 16 9 3 0
CJ McCollum 32 8 0 3
Mouhamed Gueye 9 2 4 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 19 0 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jock Landale · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Jock Landale makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
6 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
8 Christian Koloko ATL
7%
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH
6%
10 Cody Williams UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
50%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 26.2 3.8 6.3
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.0 7.3 3.1
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 24.7 11.0 8.3
4 CJ McCollum ATL 20.3 4.4 4.2
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.1 3.9 5.5
6 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 19.5 3.7 2.4
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 19.0 12.2 6.7
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.9 7.8 4.1
9 Ace Bailey UTAH 16.3 5.2 2.1
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 15.4 4.4 7.9
11 Jock Landale ATL 13.6 7.6 2.0
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 11.9 7.9 3.0
13 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.4 6.3 6.4
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.3 4.2 1.5
15 Cody Williams UTAH 10.7 4.2 1.6
16 Corey Kispert ATL 9.7 2.6 1.7
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.7 2.7 2.0
18 Kevin Love UTAH 6.7 6.2 1.7
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.2 3.7 1.6
20 Christian Koloko ATL 4.7 4.0 1.0
21 Asa Newell ATL 4.6 2.2 0.9
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.1 1.3 1.0
23 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.0 1.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.