NBA games

BKN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
98–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN1921273198
ORL27293230118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ORL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Egor Demin S 32 26 4 2
Nolan Traore S 38 21 3 7
Nic Claxton S 29 14 6 3
Danny Wolf 22 13 6 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 9 2 2
Drake Powell 19 6 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 4 5 0
Ben Saraf 16 4 1 4
Ziaire Williams 17 1 2 0
Noah Clowney S 22 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 32 23 3 4
Paolo Banchero S 31 22 5 4
Anthony Black S 28 18 2 5
Jalen Suggs S 29 15 11 11
Moritz Wagner 12 14 5 0
Jett Howard 12 7 0 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 7 8 1
Goga Bitadze 6 6 1 0
Jamal Cain 6 3 1 1
Tristan da Silva 18 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
16%
2 Anthony Black ORL
11%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
8 Nolan Traore BKN
7%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
10 Terance Mann BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
29%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.5 8.0 5.7
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.3 6.9 3.4
3 Desmond Bane ORL 21.0 4.0 3.9
4 Anthony Black ORL 19.5 4.3 5.3
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.9 4.0 6.0
6 Noah Clowney BKN 12.7 5.4 2.2
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.0 5.6 2.3
8 Egor Demin BKN 11.8 2.8 3.1
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.5 3.0 1.6
10 Nic Claxton BKN 10.7 6.5 3.4
11 Nolan Traore BKN 10.4 2.5 3.6
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.6 7.2 2.2
13 Danny Wolf BKN 8.6 4.6 2.0
14 Terance Mann BKN 7.6 2.7 2.2
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.0 2.5 1.6
16 Ben Saraf BKN 6.6 2.1 2.5
17 Moritz Wagner ORL 6.5 2.3 0.8
18 Drake Powell BKN 6.3 1.9 1.6
19 Noah Penda ORL 6.3 3.2 1.5
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.6 2.2 0.9
21 Jase Richardson ORL 5.6 1.7 1.0
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 4.7 0.7
23 Jett Howard ORL 4.0 1.5 0.8
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.2 2.0 0.9
25 Jamal Cain ORL 2.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.