NBA games

WSH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
126–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH34223931126
DET21313233117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DET
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley 29 20 6 5
Sharife Cooper 34 18 3 5
Justin Champagnie S 15 14 7 1
Tristan Vukcevic 11 14 3 3
Alex Sarr S 18 12 6 1
Bub Carrington S 22 12 0 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 36 11 5 4
Anthony Gill 30 11 3 2
Kyshawn George S 18 8 3 3
Jamir Watkins 26 6 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 30 8 8
Duncan Robinson S 30 21 1 2
Ausar Thompson S 33 13 9 3
Ronald Holland II 25 11 10 2
Javonte Green 18 8 3 0
Marcus Sasser 14 8 2 3
Paul Reed 13 7 5 0
Caris LeVert 16 7 2 3
Wendell Moore Jr. 6 4 1 0
Jalen Duren S 13 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
18%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
14%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
8 Kevin Huerter DET
7%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
24%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.0 4.3 10.7
2 Jalen Duren DET 18.5 10.6 2.4
3 Alex Sarr WSH 18.2 7.7 2.7
4 Kyshawn George WSH 17.0 6.0 5.1
5 Tre Johnson WSH 14.4 2.5 2.8
6 Bub Carrington WSH 13.5 3.3 4.8
7 Duncan Robinson DET 11.7 2.9 1.9
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.2 4.9 1.7
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 6.7 3.0
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.4 3.9 2.1
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.2 5.6 1.3
12 Kevin Huerter DET 8.1 3.7 2.9
13 Will Riley WSH 7.9 2.5 1.7
14 Ronald Holland II DET 7.4 3.8 1.7
15 Caris LeVert DET 6.7 2.9 2.7
16 Javonte Green DET 6.4 2.7 0.9
17 Marcus Sasser DET 5.9 1.2 1.6
18 Jamir Watkins WSH 5.0 4.3 1.0
19 Paul Reed DET 4.9 4.6 1.5
20 Skal Labissiere WSH 4.8 2.8 0.9
21 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.1 2.0 0.5
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.8 1.6 1.0
23 Sharife Cooper WSH 3.3 1.5 0.9
24 Chaz Lanier DET 3.0 1.0 0.7
25 Bobi Klintman DET 2.8 1.5 0.7
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.