NBA games

CLE @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
124–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE36263230124
LAC1824262391

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home LAC
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 30 29 5 9
Jaylon Tyson S 25 17 4 1
Dennis Schroder 19 11 2 6
Sam Merrill S 21 11 1 0
Jarrett Allen S 23 10 11 3
Thomas Bryant 17 8 8 0
Larry Nance Jr. 8 8 1 1
Craig Porter Jr. 25 7 2 2
Keon Ellis 19 6 3 0
Tyrese Proctor 7 6 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 27 25 7 4
John Collins S 27 19 7 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 25 10 8 0
Kobe Brown 9 10 0 0
Derrick Jones Jr. 21 7 2 0
Brook Lopez S 23 5 2 1
Jordan Miller 30 5 4 3
Kobe Sanders S 20 4 2 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 12 2 1 1
Cam Christie 12 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylon Tyson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jaylon Tyson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
3 John Collins LAC
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
6 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
7 Dennis Schroder CLE
9%
8 Kobe Sanders LAC
8%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
28%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.0 4.5 7.2
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.8 5.4 4.5
3 Jaylon Tyson CLE 19.1 5.6 4.5
4 Jordan Miller LAC 15.2 4.7 2.7
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.8 8.1 1.7
6 John Collins LAC 14.4 4.8 1.8
7 Sam Merrill CLE 12.9 2.4 2.4
8 Dennis Schroder CLE 12.4 2.5 3.6
9 Kobe Sanders LAC 10.7 3.0 1.9
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.7 3.3 1.5
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.7 3.2 3.4
12 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 8.1 3.6 1.5
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 7.2 2.6 2.1
14 Brook Lopez LAC 6.5 2.8 1.1
15 Dean Wade CLE 5.7 3.9 1.4
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.7 2.8 4.2
17 Cam Christie LAC 4.8 1.8 1.0
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.6 3.1 1.0
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.5 1.0 1.4
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.4 2.3 1.0
21 Keon Ellis CLE 4.3 1.0 0.5
22 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 3.9 0.9 1.8
23 Tristan Enaruna CLE 3.5 1.3 0.7
24 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.4 2.1 0.5
25 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.2 1.7 0.7
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.