NBA games

MEM @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
129–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM28303140129
SAC31263434125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SAC
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome S 21 28 1 7
Cam Spencer 27 20 3 5
Jaylen Wells S 26 18 3 1
GG Jackson S 27 16 7 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 22 15 2 2
Santi Aldama S 24 12 6 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 22 8 5 0
Javon Small 21 5 6 2
Cedric Coward S 27 5 7 6
Jahmai Mashack 23 2 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 24 24 15 3
DeMar DeRozan S 28 20 3 5
Nique Clifford 26 14 3 5
Russell Westbrook S 26 13 0 5
Malik Monk 18 13 0 4
Zach LaVine S 22 11 1 0
Devin Carter 24 10 6 5
De'Andre Hunter S 26 9 2 1
Maxime Raynaud 21 6 5 0
Dylan Cardwell 26 5 11 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
3 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
5 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
9 Maxime Raynaud SAC
8%
10 Ty Jerome MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
18%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.9 3.5 4.4
2 Russell Westbrook SAC 20.5 3.9 6.6
3 Zach LaVine SAC 19.0 3.2 2.9
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 16.9 9.5 4.8
5 Malik Monk SAC 15.5 2.8 3.8
6 Cedric Coward MEM 15.4 4.9 3.0
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.5 6.1 2.8
8 Ty Jerome MEM 13.3 2.7 4.8
9 Cam Spencer MEM 11.8 3.1 6.9
10 De'Andre Hunter SAC 11.2 3.4 2.1
11 GG Jackson MEM 10.9 4.0 1.8
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.6 3.1 1.5
13 Nique Clifford SAC 7.5 3.6 1.8
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.1 2.7 2.0
15 Maxime Raynaud SAC 6.9 6.2 1.3
16 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.8 5.6 1.4
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 6.2 2.8 1.2
18 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.2 7.9 1.4
19 Javon Small MEM 4.2 1.3 3.1
20 Devin Carter SAC 4.1 1.6 1.4
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.3 1.0 0.6
22 Isaiah Stevens SAC 3.3 1.1 1.8
23 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.1 1.7 0.5
24 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 3.1 1.4 0.5
25 Jahmai Mashack MEM 1.7 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.