NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
106–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC26322721106
SA39342221116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kenrich Williams S 35 25 9 2
Jaylin Williams S 40 24 12 4
Aaron Wiggins S 38 20 4 6
Brooks Barnhizer 20 14 3 5
Cason Wallace S 34 13 3 5
Chris Youngblood 20 5 3 2
Branden Carlson 16 3 7 0
Isaiah Joe S 37 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 29 25 6 2
Victor Wembanyama S 28 22 14 2
De'Aaron Fox S 33 15 4 10
Stephon Castle S 26 14 3 4
Carter Bryant 13 11 5 1
Harrison Barnes 30 9 7 1
Julian Champagnie S 27 8 5 3
Devin Vassell S 25 5 3 0
Luke Kornet 15 4 15 2
Jordan McLaughlin 13 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 12-foot turnaround jump shot (Julian Champagnie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Devin Vassell SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
24%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.9 11.0 2.4
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.8 4.2 7.1
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.1 8.9 2.0
4 Stephon Castle SA 16.4 4.9 7.3
5 Julian Champagnie SA 11.7 5.3 1.5
6 Keldon Johnson SA 11.5 4.5 2.0
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.2 4.3 2.1
8 Devin Vassell SA 11.1 3.9 1.6
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.6 4.4 1.7
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.8 8.5 2.4
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.3 2.4 1.5
12 Cason Wallace OKC 9.1 3.0 1.8
13 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.2 3.8 1.7
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.2 2.5 1.7
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.5 4.7 2.3
16 Jared McCain OKC 6.0 1.3 1.3
17 Luke Kornet SA 5.8 6.4 1.3
18 Alex Caruso OKC 5.6 2.2 1.9
19 Stanley Umude SA 4.0 1.4 0.6
20 Branden Carlson OKC 3.9 2.8 0.4
21 Carter Bryant SA 3.6 2.1 0.6
22 Harrison Ingram SA 3.1 1.8 0.6
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.1 1.3 0.6
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.0 0.8 0.6
25 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.0 1.1 0.4
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.