NO @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
137–141
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 34 | 36 | 34 | 24 | 9 | 137 |
| MIL | 30 | 33 | 36 | 29 | 13 | 141 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
MIL
76%
24%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III S | 40 | 44 | 6 | 6 |
| Saddiq Bey S | 35 | 22 | 3 | 2 |
| Zion Williamson S | 38 | 20 | 5 | 8 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 20 | 13 | 2 | 4 |
| Jose Alvarado | 17 | 9 | 5 | 1 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 15 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Herbert Jones S | 36 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Yves Missi | 31 | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| Derik Queen S | 22 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| Micah Peavy | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Saddiq Bey ·
3PT (3 pts) · 10:20 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Zion Williamson
NO
17%
2
Trey Murphy III
NO
13%
3
Myles Turner
MIL
11%
4
Ryan Rollins
MIL
10%
5
Saddiq Bey
NO
10%
6
Kyle Kuzma
MIL
9%
7
Derik Queen
NO
9%
8
Amir Coffey
MIL
8%
9
Herbert Jones
NO
7%
10
AJ Green
MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
29%
Layup
39%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 21.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| 2 | Saddiq Bey | NO | 20.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 |
| 3 | Zion Williamson | NO | 20.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 |
| 4 | Ryan Rollins | MIL | 17.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| 5 | Kyle Kuzma | MIL | 15.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| 6 | Myles Turner | MIL | 15.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 |
| 7 | Kevin Porter Jr. | MIL | 14.7 | 4.7 | 7.0 |
| 8 | Derik Queen | NO | 11.6 | 6.9 | 4.0 |
| 9 | AJ Green | MIL | 10.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 10 | Herbert Jones | NO | 9.8 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 11 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 12 | Jordan Poole | NO | 7.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 13 | Yves Missi | NO | 7.4 | 7.3 | 1.6 |
| 14 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 7.3 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| 15 | Cole Anthony | MIL | 6.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| 16 | Gary Trent Jr. | MIL | 6.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 17 | Pete Nance | MIL | 6.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| 18 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 5.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 19 | Micah Peavy | NO | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 20 | Amir Coffey | MIL | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 21 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 22 | Jericho Sims | MIL | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 23 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 24 | Kevon Looney | NO | 2.8 | 4.7 | 0.9 |
| 25 | Thanasis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.