NBA games

BOS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
114–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS18313629114
HOU1725213093

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home HOU
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 37 28 1 8
Payton Pritchard 33 27 3 7
Luka Garza S 34 19 6 2
Baylor Scheierman S 23 15 10 4
Ron Harper Jr. S 33 11 9 3
Neemias Queta S 39 10 19 2
Hugo Gonzalez 15 2 3 0
Jordan Walsh 15 2 4 0
Xavier Tillman 2 0 0 0
Josh Minott 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 33 15 5 1
Alperen Sengun S 31 13 9 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 13 4 3
Amen Thompson S 29 11 4 4
Tari Eason S 28 10 4 1
Reed Sheppard 19 9 2 0
Aaron Holiday 11 9 2 2
Clint Capela 15 4 5 0
Jeff Green 6 3 0 0
Isaiah Crawford 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Derrick White makes 27-foot three pointer (Baylor Scheierman assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
4 Nikola Vucevic BOS
9%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
7 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
8 Tari Eason HOU
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.9 8.7 4.2
2 Kevin Durant HOU 24.2 5.5 5.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.2 11.2 5.8
4 Nikola Vucevic BOS 19.6 7.8 4.0
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.2 3.6 5.2
6 Amen Thompson HOU 16.8 8.4 6.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.4 6.4 2.0
8 Derrick White BOS 12.7 5.0 5.8
9 Tari Eason HOU 12.2 7.4 1.9
10 Sam Hauser BOS 11.8 4.6 1.9
11 Reed Sheppard HOU 10.8 2.9 2.3
12 Neemias Queta BOS 10.3 7.7 1.8
13 Luka Garza BOS 8.3 3.9 1.5
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.1 3.9 1.6
15 Josh Okogie HOU 6.0 3.4 1.1
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.1 3.5 0.8
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.4 2.6 0.9
18 Clint Capela HOU 4.2 5.0 0.6
19 Isaiah Crawford HOU 3.2 1.6 0.4
20 Josh Minott BOS 3.0 1.1 0.6
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.9 1.6 0.5
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.9 1.2 0.8
23 Max Shulga BOS 2.5 1.3 0.7
24 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.2 0.9 0.5
25 JD Davison HOU 1.8 1.1 0.6
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.8 0.7 0.3
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.5 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.