NBA games

MIN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
128–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN32273534128
TOR35373222126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home TOR
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 30 8 5
Bones Hyland 26 20 7 3
Jaden McDaniels S 40 19 1 4
Naz Reid 29 17 8 3
Julius Randle S 36 17 4 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 15 6 5
Rudy Gobert S 33 10 12 2
Johnny Juzang 2 0 0 0
Jaylen Clark 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 25 6 4
Immanuel Quickley S 34 23 5 8
Scottie Barnes S 37 22 10 8
Sandro Mamukelashvili 32 14 4 2
RJ Barrett S 28 13 6 1
Collin Murray-Boyles S 25 13 4 3
Jamal Shead 22 7 2 4
Gradey Dick 13 6 4 0
Ja'Kobe Walter 14 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Julius Randle MIN
10%
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
8 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
25%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.3 5.6 3.9
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.7 6.1 5.0
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.3 5.0 4.0
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.4 8.9 6.7
5 RJ Barrett TOR 19.1 5.6 3.9
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.1 5.3 5.6
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 17.6 4.6 3.6
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 14.9 5.6 2.7
9 Naz Reid MIN 14.8 6.7 2.8
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.3 4.4 4.1
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.2 7.7 3.2
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.3 10.0 1.3
13 Jamal Shead TOR 8.5 2.6 5.2
14 Gradey Dick TOR 8.4 3.4 1.1
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.1 2.3 1.1
16 Bones Hyland MIN 5.8 2.1 2.4
17 Joan Beringer MIN 3.8 2.9 0.6
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.5 1.8 0.8
19 Jamison Battle TOR 3.3 1.5 0.7
20 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.6 1.2 0.4
21 Leonard Miller MIN 2.5 1.3 0.3
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.5 0.9 0.7
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.7 1.7 0.4
24 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.7 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.