NBA games

DEN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
127–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
DEN30232926118127
NY282733201115134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home NY
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 48 39 5 6
Nikola Jokic S 45 30 14 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. 42 19 6 2
Julian Strawther 17 11 3 1
Bruce Brown 38 10 5 0
Peyton Watson S 33 10 5 2
Christian Braun S 43 6 7 6
Jonas Valanciunas 13 2 3 2
Spencer Jones S 12 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 47 42 8 9
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 24 12 1
OG Anunoby S 48 20 8 4
Landry Shamet 36 16 2 3
Jordan Clarkson S 24 11 1 1
Mitchell Robinson 23 10 8 0
Mikal Bridges S 49 5 4 4
Mohamed Diawara 14 5 0 0
Tyler Kolek 13 1 1 4
Kevin McCullar Jr. 2 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 OG Anunoby NY
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 Peyton Watson DEN
11%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
8 Christian Braun DEN
9%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
6%
10 Jalen Pickett DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
30%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.8 11.0 9.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.5 3.7 7.0
3 Jalen Brunson NY 21.3 3.3 5.3
4 Peyton Watson DEN 19.9 4.9 2.7
5 OG Anunoby NY 19.8 5.3 3.4
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.0 3.0 3.4
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 15.5 11.1 3.2
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.7 3.3 1.4
9 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 9.9 7.1 1.6
10 Christian Braun DEN 9.3 3.7 2.2
11 Bruce Brown DEN 9.2 3.3 2.0
12 Landry Shamet NY 8.4 1.9 1.4
13 Spencer Jones DEN 7.0 3.7 0.9
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.9 1.7 1.1
15 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.5 3.2 3.1
16 Julian Strawther DEN 6.4 2.4 1.2
17 Tyler Kolek NY 6.1 1.8 3.3
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.8 9.3 0.9
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.8 3.7 0.7
20 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.5 1.8 1.1
21 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.0 1.6 0.7
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.9 1.9 1.1
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.5 2.9 0.5
24 Dillon Jones NY 2.8 1.9 0.6
25 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 2.3 1.3 1.0
26 Guerschon Yabusele NY 2.1 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.