NBA games

PHX @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
130–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30373429130
POR41312231125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home POR
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Gillespie S 33 30 4 10
Mark Williams S 26 24 11 1
Grayson Allen S 36 24 1 4
Jordan Goodwin 23 16 10 3
Royce O'Neale S 36 11 7 0
Dillon Brooks S 31 11 4 1
Oso Ighodaro 21 8 5 6
Ryan Dunn 9 6 1 0
Jamaree Bouyea 15 0 1 1
Isaiah Livers 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 33 23 2 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 31 19 1 1
Jrue Holiday S 29 15 4 5
Robert Williams III 19 14 8 3
Donovan Clingan S 27 14 15 3
Toumani Camara S 38 13 11 4
Sidy Cissoko 21 12 5 6
Blake Wesley 20 10 1 4
Vit Krejci 14 5 0 1
Caleb Love 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
2 Deni Avdija POR
9%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
9%
4 Mark Williams PHX
8%
5 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Toumani Camara POR
7%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
10 Jrue Holiday POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.8 7.1 6.2
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.3 5.2 3.7
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.3 4.5 2.5
4 Grayson Allen PHX 20.2 3.8 5.1
5 Jerami Grant POR 17.5 3.7 2.4
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 15.7 3.8 3.7
7 Caleb Love POR 14.5 3.3 4.2
8 Donovan Clingan POR 12.5 10.8 2.4
9 Toumani Camara POR 12.2 4.9 2.1
10 Jrue Holiday POR 11.2 3.7 4.5
11 Mark Williams PHX 10.8 7.3 1.5
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.4 3.6 3.6
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.6 5.0 2.3
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.5 3.2 1.3
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 7.2 2.5 1.6
16 Kris Murray POR 6.9 2.8 1.3
17 Blake Wesley POR 6.5 2.4 3.2
18 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.5 4.9 1.4
19 Robert Williams III POR 6.1 6.8 1.1
20 Rayan Rupert POR 5.5 2.4 1.3
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.3 0.8
22 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.7 2.6 1.1
23 Vit Krejci POR 4.2 1.3 0.8
24 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.6 2.0 0.9
25 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.1 1.6 0.7
26 Yang Hansen POR 3.0 1.7 0.9
27 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.5 1.6 0.6
28 Nick Richards PHX 1.8 2.7 0.4
29 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.