NBA games

PHI @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
113–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI31272629113
GS3223162394

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home GS
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
VJ Edgecombe S 40 25 7 7
Trendon Watford 27 16 8 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 15 6 3
Tyrese Maxey S 34 14 4 3
Andre Drummond S 29 12 12 1
Adem Bona 16 11 7 0
Dominick Barlow S 22 10 6 1
Quentin Grimes 23 10 5 3
Jabari Walker 2 0 1 0
Jared McCain 8 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gui Santos S 26 13 2 3
Pat Spencer 26 13 4 3
Moses Moody S 20 12 2 0
Al Horford S 20 10 0 2
Quinten Post 17 10 4 3
De'Anthony Melton 24 10 6 6
Buddy Hield 28 9 3 3
Brandin Podziemski S 25 8 2 2
Draymond Green S 25 6 7 3
Will Richard 13 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot running jump shot (Al Horford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
3 Brandin Podziemski GS
12%
4 Paul George PHI
12%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
6 Dominick Barlow PHI
10%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Moses Moody GS
9%
9 Al Horford GS
8%
10 Jared McCain PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
46%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.3 3.9 8.1
2 Paul George PHI 16.3 4.5 4.2
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.8 5.7 5.4
4 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.8 3.7 3.0
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.5 4.2 2.2
6 Moses Moody GS 13.9 4.1 1.5
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 12.9 4.9 4.2
8 Draymond Green GS 9.9 5.1 5.0
9 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.1 3.6 2.6
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.8 4.7 1.4
11 Al Horford GS 8.3 5.6 2.7
12 Buddy Hield GS 7.6 2.4 1.2
13 Gui Santos GS 6.8 3.2 1.6
14 Quinten Post GS 6.7 3.5 0.9
15 Jared McCain PHI 6.3 1.4 1.3
16 Will Richard GS 5.9 2.2 2.1
17 Eric Gordon PHI 4.8 1.1 0.7
18 Malevy Leons GS 4.6 3.0 0.7
19 Gary Payton II GS 4.5 2.5 0.7
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.5 4.8 0.7
21 Andre Drummond PHI 4.1 5.0 0.5
22 Jabari Walker PHI 3.8 2.4 0.7
23 Trendon Watford PHI 3.7 2.1 1.6
24 Justin Edwards PHI 3.3 1.0 0.5
25 Pat Spencer GS 2.6 1.3 1.6
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.4 1.2 0.5
27 Johni Broome PHI 1.9 1.6 0.4
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.4 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.