NBA games

ORL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
92–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL1427272492
OKC39292634128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home OKC
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 25 20 3 6
Paolo Banchero S 33 17 3 4
Noah Penda 24 11 5 2
Anthony Black S 28 10 6 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 23 9 7 2
Moritz Wagner 13 8 5 0
Desmond Bane S 22 7 2 2
Jett Howard 14 7 2 0
Tristan da Silva 26 3 2 2
Jase Richardson 13 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Joe 23 22 0 0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 20 5 9
Luguentz Dort S 31 18 5 1
Chet Holmgren S 27 16 10 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 23 12 10 10
Kenrich Williams 18 11 7 1
Aaron Wiggins 19 9 3 0
Alex Caruso 19 6 0 3
Cason Wallace S 23 5 1 5
Jaylin Williams 17 5 9 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Anthony Black ORL
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
7%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.7 4.5 6.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 9.2 5.5
3 Desmond Bane ORL 22.3 4.3 4.0
4 Anthony Black ORL 19.0 4.2 5.3
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.4 8.9 1.9
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.2 4.3 5.3
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.9 4.8 2.4
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.0 5.9 2.2
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.4 8.2 2.4
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.2 4.3 1.8
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.5 3.1 1.7
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.7 2.5 1.7
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.7 2.7 1.5
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.6 3.4 1.9
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.8 4.8 2.4
16 Moritz Wagner ORL 6.4 2.1 0.7
17 Noah Penda ORL 6.0 3.7 1.3
18 Jase Richardson ORL 6.0 1.8 1.2
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.5 5.2 0.7
20 Alex Caruso OKC 4.8 2.1 1.6
21 Tyus Jones ORL 4.3 1.5 2.2
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.1 1.8 1.2
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.9 1.7 0.9
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.8 2.9 0.8
25 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.4 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.