NBA games

CHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
115–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24283726115
MIL39382826131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 36 22 2 1
Coby White S 30 21 10 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 28 17 4 8
Patrick Williams 27 17 5 3
Jalen Smith S 20 16 5 1
Isaac Okoro S 40 9 2 2
Dalen Terry 16 6 3 1
Yuki Kawamura 26 5 5 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 31 31 10 6
Ryan Rollins S 35 21 7 10
AJ Green S 30 17 4 2
Gary Trent Jr. 23 15 1 0
Myles Turner S 23 15 4 1
Pete Nance 27 15 8 2
Jericho Sims 21 9 9 2
Cole Anthony 12 4 3 5
Andre Jackson Jr. 12 2 2 3
Amir Coffey S 22 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Smith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
13%
2 Myles Turner MIL
12%
3 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
5 Coby White CHI
9%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
7 Jalen Smith CHI
9%
8 AJ Green MIL
9%
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
9%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
24%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 19.1 4.0 5.6
2 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 18.6 4.2 3.9
3 Josh Giddey CHI 17.2 6.6 8.3
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.2 6.1 3.6
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 15.5 5.4 5.0
6 Myles Turner MIL 14.9 5.9 1.9
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.3 4.8 2.9
8 Tre Jones CHI 13.1 3.4 6.5
9 Jalen Smith CHI 12.0 8.0 1.5
10 AJ Green MIL 10.0 2.4 2.0
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.7 2.9 1.7
12 Patrick Williams CHI 6.8 3.1 1.4
13 Cole Anthony MIL 6.3 2.2 2.0
14 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.9 1.3 1.5
15 Yuki Kawamura CHI 5.7 3.4 3.6
16 Pete Nance MIL 5.2 2.3 0.8
17 Dalen Terry CHI 5.1 2.5 1.4
18 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 1.5 0.6
19 Amir Coffey MIL 3.3 1.2 0.6
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.2 1.3 0.8
21 Jericho Sims MIL 3.0 2.3 0.8
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.6 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.