NBA games

BOS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
110–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS32203424110
DAL29152333100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 33 11 3
Payton Pritchard 35 26 4 7
Luka Garza 20 16 4 1
Derrick White S 38 11 2 8
Sam Hauser S 26 11 5 0
Neemias Queta S 28 8 8 3
Baylor Scheierman S 28 3 7 3
Hugo Gonzalez 17 2 6 2
Jordan Walsh 11 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 37 36 9 6
Caleb Martin S 29 13 5 3
Max Christie S 30 10 2 3
Daniel Gafford S 25 10 12 1
Naji Marshall S 31 9 8 3
Jaden Hardy 18 7 2 0
Moussa Cisse 15 4 5 0
Klay Thompson 20 4 1 1
Dwight Powell 11 4 2 0
Ryan Nembhard 12 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 1-foot running dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
17%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
4 Payton Pritchard BOS
11%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Max Christie DAL
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
10 Anfernee Simons BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
21%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.1 8.7 4.9
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.2 7.3 4.4
3 Naji Marshall DAL 20.7 6.7 4.6
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.3 3.6 5.2
5 Anfernee Simons BOS 16.0 3.2 2.3
6 Brandon Williams DAL 15.5 3.7 2.9
7 Max Christie DAL 14.7 3.7 2.3
8 Derrick White BOS 13.1 5.3 5.9
9 Sam Hauser BOS 13.0 4.2 2.3
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.5 7.9 2.0
11 Klay Thompson DAL 10.4 2.8 1.8
12 Luka Garza BOS 7.6 3.9 1.5
13 Caleb Martin DAL 7.6 4.3 2.9
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.4 7.0 0.9
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.1 1.3 1.2
16 Dwight Powell DAL 5.7 6.3 1.4
17 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.3 3.3 1.4
18 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.3 6.3 0.6
19 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.2 1.6 4.1
20 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.1 3.3 0.8
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.7 3.2 0.9
22 Josh Minott BOS 3.5 1.3 0.7
23 Chris Boucher BOS 2.6 2.5 0.4
24 Miles Kelly DAL 2.6 1.2 0.5
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.4 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.