NBA games

ATL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
127–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL33343129127
MIA23273134115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIA
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 36 29 11 11
CJ McCollum 26 26 4 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 31 19 5 7
Corey Kispert 28 13 4 4
Luke Kennard 23 12 5 1
Asa Newell 17 8 2 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 7 7 2
Mouhamed Gueye 22 6 6 2
Keaton Wallace 1 3 0 0
Dyson Daniels S 22 2 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 21 8 3
Simone Fontecchio S 34 18 6 2
Pelle Larsson S 36 18 4 5
Bam Adebayo S 30 16 14 1
Myron Gardner S 22 14 6 0
Kel'el Ware 18 9 8 0
Kasparas Jakucionis 16 5 3 2
Nikola Jovic 8 5 2 0
Davion Mitchell S 28 4 1 10
Jahmir Young 1 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Simone Fontecchio · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
2 Norman Powell MIA
9%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
5 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
26%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.7 10.8 3.8
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.5 10.9 7.3
3 Norman Powell MIA 21.6 4.1 3.1
4 Tyler Herro MIA 21.6 4.1 3.4
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.2 3.9 4.7
6 CJ McCollum ATL 19.9 4.5 4.1
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.5 7.9 4.1
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.2 5.0 3.6
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 16.3 5.2 4.0
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.1 6.5 5.5
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.7 6.8 6.3
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.1 4.3 1.4
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.7 3.1 6.4
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.8 4.6 2.2
15 Corey Kispert ATL 9.3 2.4 1.6
16 Luke Kennard ATL 8.4 2.9 1.4
17 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.0 4.0 1.0
18 Dru Smith MIA 7.7 3.8 3.3
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.0 3.4 1.4
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.2 2.9 3.4
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.8 3.6 1.5
22 Myron Gardner MIA 5.4 3.9 1.2
23 Jahmir Young MIA 4.9 1.5 1.6
24 Christian Koloko ATL 4.3 4.6 1.0
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.7 1.4 0.7
26 Asa Newell ATL 3.6 2.4 0.6
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.5 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.