NBA games

LAL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
125–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL45243125125
BKN23173435109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home BKN
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 30 25 3 7
Luka Doncic S 29 24 6 5
Jake LaRavia S 22 18 5 0
Austin Reaves 21 15 4 1
Jaxson Hayes 15 9 1 2
Deandre Ayton S 28 7 8 3
Marcus Smart S 18 6 3 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 19 6 5 3
Rui Hachimura 26 5 3 0
Bronny James 5 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 21 10 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 26 19 14 5
Ziaire Williams 24 17 2 3
Egor Demin S 27 11 2 2
Nic Claxton S 22 10 5 2
Cam Thomas 23 8 0 2
Nolan Traore S 25 7 5 4
Danny Wolf 19 7 4 3
Noah Clowney S 21 6 4 2
Ben Saraf 17 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Egor Demin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Egor Demin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
9%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
9%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
7 Nolan Traore BKN
7%
8 Danny Wolf BKN
7%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
6%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
22%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.3 7.5 9.2
2 Austin Reaves LAL 25.5 4.8 5.7
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 23.7 6.5 3.7
4 LeBron James LAL 23.2 6.0 6.5
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.7 8.4 1.4
6 Noah Clowney BKN 12.2 4.7 1.9
7 Cam Thomas BKN 11.4 2.4 4.2
8 Marcus Smart LAL 11.3 2.8 2.6
9 Nic Claxton BKN 10.8 7.1 3.8
10 Egor Demin BKN 10.8 2.7 3.1
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.7 2.6 1.2
12 Nolan Traore BKN 10.4 2.2 3.7
13 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.2 3.1 1.3
14 Danny Wolf BKN 9.1 4.7 2.2
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.0 6.6 1.7
16 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.5 3.8 2.3
17 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 2.9 2.4
18 Drake Powell BKN 7.1 2.0 1.8
19 Ben Saraf BKN 6.9 2.1 3.0
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.5 3.6 0.9
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.5 2.5 1.2
22 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.7 2.0 0.9
23 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.4 3.7 1.3
24 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.1 1.3 1.2
25 Drew Timme LAL 4.6 1.6 1.1
26 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.5 1.3 0.6
27 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.0 1.9 0.8
28 Bronny James LAL 2.2 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.