NBA games

NY @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
132–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY38343030132
WSH22232630101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home WSH
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 26 23 4 5
Jalen Brunson S 31 21 1 4
OG Anunoby S 27 19 4 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 26 19 15 3
Landry Shamet 21 14 0 1
Jordan Clarkson 21 12 0 2
Ariel Hukporti 22 12 9 1
Mohamed Diawara 4 5 1 1
Josh Hart S 22 4 7 7
Tyler Kolek 21 3 4 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley 25 17 6 1
AJ Johnson 24 14 4 4
Bub Carrington S 25 14 2 1
Khris Middleton S 22 12 2 2
Marvin Bagley III 16 11 6 1
Alex Sarr S 25 11 9 3
Sharife Cooper 19 9 4 1
Kyshawn George S 26 8 2 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 3 2 2
Justin Champagnie 20 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 OG Anunoby NY
9%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
27%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 22.8 3.6 5.7
2 OG Anunoby NY 20.6 5.2 3.6
3 Kyshawn George WSH 18.9 6.0 5.3
4 Alex Sarr WSH 18.4 7.8 2.5
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.0 10.8 3.2
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.2 3.2 3.3
7 Josh Hart NY 15.0 6.5 5.2
8 Bub Carrington WSH 12.4 3.3 5.4
9 Khris Middleton WSH 12.2 3.9 3.5
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.9 4.0 2.0
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.1 5.5 1.3
12 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.0 5.7 1.1
13 Will Riley WSH 8.1 2.1 1.8
14 Landry Shamet NY 7.6 1.9 1.4
15 Tyler Kolek NY 6.0 2.0 3.4
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.5 1.5 0.7
17 AJ Johnson WSH 5.3 1.9 1.3
18 Malaki Branham WSH 4.2 1.3 0.8
19 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.5 1.7 0.7
20 Trey Jemison III NY 3.4 3.1 0.7
21 Sharife Cooper WSH 3.0 1.1 0.9
22 Dillon Jones NY 3.0 2.0 0.6
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 2.3 0.5
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.5 2.4 0.5
25 Guerschon Yabusele NY 2.4 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.