NBA games

UTAH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
131–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH25314035131
IND32243333122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home IND
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 27 27 3 2
Brice Sensabaugh 30 20 1 5
Ace Bailey S 40 19 4 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 20 18 3 0
Isaiah Collier S 48 17 5 22
Kyle Filipowski S 36 16 16 5
Cody Williams S 40 14 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarace Walker S 32 24 6 4
Quenton Jackson 17 24 1 3
Johnny Furphy S 29 14 7 6
Jay Huff S 25 12 6 3
Kam Jones S 36 12 6 8
Ethan Thompson 19 11 0 3
Isaiah Jackson 23 11 10 1
Ben Sheppard S 29 8 1 1
Taelon Peter 30 6 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
7 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
43%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 26.7 3.8 6.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 25.8 6.8 5.6
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.2 7.3 2.9
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.3 4.5 9.2
5 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 18.7 11.7 6.7
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.0 5.0 3.2
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 17.5 3.5 1.9
8 Walker Kessler UTAH 17.4 11.1 4.1
9 Ace Bailey UTAH 15.7 5.1 2.3
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.7 4.6 3.3
11 Isaiah Collier UTAH 14.1 4.1 6.6
12 Jarace Walker IND 13.7 4.2 2.7
13 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 10.5 6.5 2.4
14 Cody Williams UTAH 10.2 4.2 1.4
15 Jay Huff IND 8.7 4.3 1.1
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.1 2.4 4.8
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.5 2.5 2.0
18 Kevin Love UTAH 7.2 6.3 1.9
19 Johnny Furphy IND 7.0 5.6 1.8
20 Micah Potter IND 6.1 3.7 1.3
21 Ben Sheppard IND 5.5 1.9 1.6
22 Quenton Jackson IND 5.0 1.6 1.3
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.8 4.0 1.1
24 Ethan Thompson IND 2.9 1.3 0.9
25 Taelon Peter IND 2.0 0.9 0.5
26 Kam Jones IND 2.0 1.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.