NBA games

DEN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
121–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27233041121
DET32372431124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home DET
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 32 1 8
Nikola Jokic S 33 24 15 4
Peyton Watson S 38 17 3 2
Julian Strawther 23 15 8 2
Jonas Valanciunas 22 11 11 1
Bruce Brown 23 10 2 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 6 2 0
Christian Braun S 26 6 0 2
Jalen Pickett S 10 0 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 29 2 10
Duncan Robinson S 25 20 3 2
Jalen Duren S 31 19 13 1
Isaiah Stewart 23 11 6 3
Tobias Harris S 34 11 6 3
Ausar Thompson S 24 10 6 3
Javonte Green 14 7 0 2
Ronald Holland II 15 7 4 0
Daniss Jenkins 16 6 1 0
Caris LeVert 20 4 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
16%
2 Tobias Harris DET
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
8 Christian Braun DEN
9%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
10 Jalen Pickett DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
22%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.4 11.3 9.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.1 3.8 7.1
3 Cade Cunningham DET 22.7 4.2 9.8
4 Peyton Watson DEN 21.4 5.1 3.0
5 Jalen Duren DET 17.2 10.2 2.2
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.5 4.5 2.5
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.5 3.5 1.6
8 Duncan Robinson DET 10.8 2.5 1.5
9 Ausar Thompson DET 9.4 6.2 2.7
10 Bruce Brown DEN 9.4 3.8 2.0
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.2 4.8 1.4
12 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 9.0 6.2 1.6
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.7 2.3 3.4
14 Christian Braun DEN 8.0 3.1 1.8
15 Ronald Holland II DET 7.2 3.8 1.7
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 7.0 3.6 3.5
17 Marcus Sasser DET 6.5 1.4 1.7
18 Javonte Green DET 6.1 2.5 0.7
19 Julian Strawther DEN 5.8 2.2 1.5
20 Paul Reed DET 5.5 4.5 1.6
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.2 4.2 0.8
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.7 1.9 1.2
23 Caris LeVert DET 4.0 2.3 1.8
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.0 2.1 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.