NBA games

PHI @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
128–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI38342828128
LAC19343426113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home LAC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 36 29 5 6
Dominick Barlow S 35 26 16 2
Joel Embiid S 32 24 5 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 15 3 2
Quentin Grimes 28 14 2 4
Adem Bona 16 6 3 1
Jared McCain 14 6 2 4
VJ Edgecombe S 31 5 3 7
Trendon Watford 11 3 1 1
Jabari Walker 2 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 31 29 4 6
Jordan Miller 28 21 4 2
Kobe Sanders S 34 17 3 3
John Collins S 32 15 7 2
Brook Lopez 20 13 1 1
Ivica Zubac S 33 8 9 2
Kris Dunn S 27 6 2 6
Cam Christie 10 2 0 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 6 2 3 0
Nicolas Batum 14 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 16-foot step back jumpshot (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 John Collins LAC
11%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Paul George PHI
9%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
8 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
42%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.2 8.5 5.7
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.3 5.2 4.4
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.4 3.6 7.4
4 Paul George PHI 16.1 4.4 4.2
5 John Collins LAC 15.4 4.8 1.7
6 Jordan Miller LAC 15.3 4.4 2.8
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.4 11.4 2.0
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.5 4.1 2.1
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI 12.7 4.8 3.7
10 Kobe Sanders LAC 10.8 3.2 2.0
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.1 3.7 2.5
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.0 3.4 3.2
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 7.6 2.7 2.3
14 Brook Lopez LAC 6.6 3.2 1.2
15 Dominick Barlow PHI 5.8 3.0 1.1
16 Jared McCain PHI 5.7 1.2 1.0
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.6 3.4 1.2
18 Cam Christie LAC 5.1 2.1 1.1
19 Eric Gordon PHI 4.8 0.9 0.7
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.3 3.9 0.6
21 Andre Drummond PHI 4.0 4.9 0.5
22 Jabari Walker PHI 3.9 2.2 0.7
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.8 2.3 0.6
24 Justin Edwards PHI 3.2 1.0 0.5
25 Trendon Watford PHI 3.1 1.9 1.5
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.9 1.6 0.8
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.4 0.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.