NBA games

MIN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
128–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29292842128
MEM36303239137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MEM
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 39 7 3
Jaden McDaniels S 37 29 4 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 34 21 3 4
Julius Randle S 40 19 8 8
Naz Reid 26 10 6 1
Rudy Gobert S 25 7 10 0
Bones Hyland 17 3 1 3
Mike Conley 14 0 1 2
Jaylen Clark 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 30 6 2
Ty Jerome S 20 19 6 8
Jaylen Wells S 26 18 1 2
Cam Spencer 25 16 4 5
Vince Williams Jr. 23 16 1 5
Cedric Coward S 28 14 4 1
GG Jackson 21 13 8 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 19 4 3 3
Jock Landale S 28 4 6 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 19 3 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Julius Randle MIN
10%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
8 Ty Jerome MEM
8%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
8%
10 Jock Landale MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
40%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
7%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.1 5.5 4.4
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.7 6.1 4.7
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.8 6.5 2.3
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.8 4.9 3.8
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.5 6.5 3.2
6 Cedric Coward MEM 15.0 5.4 3.1
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.5 4.4 4.7
8 Jock Landale MEM 12.2 7.5 2.0
9 GG Jackson MEM 11.3 3.8 1.6
10 Cam Spencer MEM 10.9 3.1 7.0
11 Ty Jerome MEM 10.8 2.1 3.7
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.3 3.4 1.5
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.3 10.8 1.5
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.8 3.4 3.1
15 Bones Hyland MIN 7.5 2.3 2.6
16 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.9 2.6 1.8
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 6.8 2.5 1.2
18 Mike Conley MIN 5.3 2.3 2.2
19 Joan Beringer MIN 4.4 3.2 0.7
20 John Konchar MEM 4.3 3.3 1.4
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.0 2.5 0.9
22 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.1 1.4 0.6
23 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.1 1.2 1.0
24 Leonard Miller MIN 3.0 1.5 0.5
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.1 0.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.