NBA games

HOU @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
118–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU24392431118
IND28283127114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home IND
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 35 39 16 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 19 4 1
Amen Thompson S 39 16 11 7
Reed Sheppard S 25 11 2 5
Tari Eason S 34 9 10 0
Aaron Holiday 17 8 0 0
Jae'Sean Tate 14 8 3 0
Clint Capela 11 4 7 3
Dorian Finney-Smith 17 4 3 0
Josh Okogie 12 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 27 4 5
Bennedict Mathurin 34 25 4 5
Aaron Nesmith S 33 17 6 2
Jarace Walker 23 12 4 1
Andrew Nembhard S 32 7 1 8
Isaiah Jackson 25 6 6 4
Jay Huff S 12 6 3 1
Micah Potter 11 5 1 2
T.J. McConnell 16 5 0 2
Ben Sheppard 7 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot two point shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
6 Tari Eason HOU
9%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Jarace Walker IND
9%
9 Johnny Furphy IND
6%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
36%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.2 7.1 5.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.1 10.8 6.0
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.4 4.7 8.4
4 Amen Thompson HOU 16.6 8.0 6.6
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.7 5.2 2.2
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.6 6.9 2.1
7 Tari Eason HOU 13.8 7.4 1.9
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.1 4.8 2.8
9 Jarace Walker IND 12.6 4.3 2.4
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.0 2.8 2.1
11 Jay Huff IND 8.7 4.2 1.0
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.2 4.5
13 Josh Okogie HOU 6.8 3.9 1.3
14 Johnny Furphy IND 6.6 5.5 1.6
15 Ben Sheppard IND 5.2 1.6 1.3
16 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.6 2.5 0.8
17 Micah Potter IND 4.5 3.0 0.8
18 Clint Capela HOU 4.5 4.8 0.6
19 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.1 1.9 0.7
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.1 3.7 0.7
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.7 1.5 0.6
22 Jeff Green HOU 2.7 1.0 0.5
23 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.6 1.0 0.8
24 Kam Jones IND 1.5 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.