NBA games

NO @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
95–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO3034181395
CHA23262924102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CHA
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 37 27 1 4
Derik Queen S 31 16 8 3
Zion Williamson S 31 14 11 4
Herbert Jones S 36 12 7 2
Jeremiah Fears 15 9 2 0
Saddiq Bey S 35 8 3 5
Yves Missi 11 4 1 0
Jose Alvarado 30 3 0 3
Karlo Matkovic 14 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 30 24 8 5
Kon Knueppel S 36 17 9 2
Grant Williams 20 16 9 1
Brandon Miller S 37 16 8 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner 18 10 7 1
Miles Bridges S 31 9 4 1
Collin Sexton 12 5 0 0
Sion James 19 3 5 0
Moussa Diabate S 28 2 9 2
Josh Green 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
17%
2 Zion Williamson NO
16%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
7 Derik Queen NO
8%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
6%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
17%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 24.3 5.2 4.1
2 Trey Murphy III NO 21.3 4.6 4.1
3 Saddiq Bey NO 20.2 5.6 2.9
4 Zion Williamson NO 19.8 7.6 3.6
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.3 6.2 4.0
6 LaMelo Ball CHA 17.5 4.1 7.3
7 Miles Bridges CHA 15.7 4.9 3.1
8 Moussa Diabate CHA 11.4 9.5 1.8
9 Collin Sexton CHA 11.3 2.3 3.1
10 Derik Queen NO 10.9 6.9 3.9
11 Herbert Jones NO 9.5 2.9 2.7
12 Jeremiah Fears NO 8.8 3.7 2.1
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.2 6.0 1.2
14 Jordan Poole NO 7.7 1.6 1.8
15 Yves Missi NO 7.5 7.1 1.5
16 Jose Alvarado NO 7.2 2.6 2.7
17 Grant Williams CHA 5.5 3.2 1.2
18 Micah Peavy NO 5.4 1.8 1.1
19 Sion James CHA 5.2 3.4 1.8
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.0 3.3 0.7
21 Josh Green CHA 4.7 2.5 1.3
22 Tre Mann CHA 3.7 1.0 0.9
23 Kevon Looney NO 2.6 4.6 0.9
24 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.6 1.4 0.5
25 Pat Connaughton CHA 1.5 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.