NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
121–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32303920121
DEN26293026111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 34 5 13
Cason Wallace S 30 27 6 0
Aaron Wiggins 25 14 6 0
Chet Holmgren S 28 14 4 1
Isaiah Joe 23 9 2 1
Jaylin Williams 24 8 5 4
Luguentz Dort S 32 6 4 1
Kenrich Williams 18 5 2 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 4 5 1
Ousmane Dieng 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Peyton Watson S 37 29 5 3
Nikola Jokic S 29 16 7 8
Jonas Valanciunas 13 13 3 2
Jamal Murray S 35 12 5 12
Bruce Brown 22 9 3 0
Julian Strawther 22 9 4 3
Jalen Pickett S 18 7 2 1
Spencer Jones S 28 6 2 0
Hunter Tyson 3 5 1 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 25 3 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
14%
2 Peyton Watson DEN
14%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Luguentz Dort OKC
11%
5 Jalen Pickett DEN
9%
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
7 Jaylin Williams OKC
8%
8 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
10 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.8 5.0 5.9
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.8 12.5 10.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 26.5 4.0 8.5
4 Peyton Watson DEN 21.3 5.2 3.5
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.9 10.2 1.8
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.4 3.7 2.0
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.5 4.8 2.6
8 Bruce Brown DEN 9.7 3.9 2.4
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.7 8.6 2.3
10 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 9.7 7.3 1.7
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 4.4 1.8
12 Jalen Pickett DEN 8.0 3.6 3.9
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.7 2.3 1.4
14 Spencer Jones DEN 7.5 4.3 1.1
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.4 3.0 1.6
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.5 3.4 1.4
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.6 4.9 1.1
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.4 4.1 1.8
19 Julian Strawther DEN 5.4 2.0 1.3
20 DaRon Holmes II DEN 5.3 2.3 1.4
21 Alex Caruso OKC 4.4 2.1 1.4
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.2 1.5 1.2
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.2 2.1 1.3
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.2 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.