NBA games

CLE @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
130–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE29284132130
POR24243033111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home POR
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 30 40 17 5
Sam Merrill S 29 22 2 4
Jaylon Tyson S 30 18 3 6
Donovan Mitchell S 31 14 0 9
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 21 12 1 0
Thomas Bryant 14 10 1 0
Dean Wade S 26 6 3 1
Lonzo Ball 16 3 3 2
Craig Porter Jr. 28 3 4 12
Tristan Enaruna 3 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caleb Love 30 21 2 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 20 2 3
Sidy Cissoko S 32 15 5 2
Jerami Grant S 28 15 2 1
Toumani Camara S 30 12 4 1
Robert Williams III 18 10 12 2
Donovan Clingan S 27 8 12 5
Blake Wesley 19 5 3 4
Rayan Rupert 19 3 4 2
Javonte Cooke 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shaedon Sharpe · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Shaedon Sharpe makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
14%
2 Deni Avdija POR
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
6 Toumani Camara POR
9%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
8 Kris Murray POR
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
6%
10 Sam Merrill CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
35%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.4 4.8 6.8
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.2 6.9 6.2
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.1 5.5 3.6
4 Jaylon Tyson CLE 19.7 5.9 4.2
5 Jerami Grant POR 17.7 3.7 2.4
6 Caleb Love POR 14.6 3.3 4.2
7 Toumani Camara POR 12.4 5.2 2.3
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.3 7.2 1.6
9 Donovan Clingan POR 12.1 10.4 1.9
10 Sam Merrill CLE 11.6 2.4 2.1
11 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 8.2 4.1 1.8
12 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.4 2.9 1.3
13 Kris Murray POR 6.9 2.8 1.3
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.5 4.1 1.4
15 Blake Wesley POR 6.3 2.5 2.9
16 Robert Williams III POR 5.8 5.7 1.0
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.3 2.8 3.6
18 Rayan Rupert POR 5.3 2.2 1.2
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.2 1.3 1.6
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.2 0.8
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.8 2.5 1.1
22 Lonzo Ball CLE 4.5 3.1 1.8
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.1 2.2 0.9
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.1 1.7 0.9
25 Javonte Cooke POR 2.8 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.