NBA games

LAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
11793
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24253632117
PHX2023282293

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home PHX
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 25 8 5
Jordan Miller 24 20 5 2
John Collins S 28 16 9 2
Ivica Zubac S 33 14 20 1
Kobe Sanders S 31 12 2 4
Brook Lopez 21 8 1 3
Kris Dunn S 30 8 5 3
Cam Christie 14 6 3 1
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 3 3 1 0
Nicolas Batum 22 3 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 36 23 1 8
Dillon Brooks S 35 22 5 1
Collin Gillespie S 27 12 4 2
Jordan Goodwin 24 12 6 1
Royce O'Neale S 34 9 4 3
Mark Williams S 24 7 7 4
Oso Ighodaro 18 4 2 0
Jamaree Bouyea 10 2 1 0
Isaiah Livers 14 2 1 1
Rasheer Fleming 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Mark Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
15%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
3 Mark Williams PHX
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
11%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
11%
7 John Collins LAC
10%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
9%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Kobe Sanders LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
21%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.7 5.8 4.2
2 Grayson Allen PHX 20.3 4.0 4.3
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.1 4.6 2.5
4 John Collins LAC 14.6 4.8 1.4
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 14.0 3.8 3.9
6 Jordan Miller LAC 13.2 4.1 2.4
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.9 10.1 2.0
8 Mark Williams PHX 11.8 8.0 1.4
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.3 3.5 3.6
10 Kobe Sanders LAC 9.1 3.0 1.5
11 Kris Dunn LAC 7.7 3.0 3.1
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.4 4.6 2.3
13 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 7.3 2.6 1.8
14 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 7.1 2.6 2.1
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.6 4.8 1.7
16 Brook Lopez LAC 5.8 3.0 0.8
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.9 2.5 1.2
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.7 0.9
19 Cam Christie LAC 4.2 1.8 0.8
20 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.6 1.9 0.9
21 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.6 2.8 0.5
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.2 1.8 0.7
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.7 1.4 0.6
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.5 1.3 0.6
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.4 1.5 0.6
26 Nick Richards PHX 1.6 2.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.