NBA games

LAL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
100–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL33232618100
NY27253822112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NY
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 30 15 8
LeBron James S 35 22 5 6
Deandre Ayton S 32 13 5 1
Rui Hachimura 29 11 3 1
Gabe Vincent 18 8 1 0
Marcus Smart S 30 7 0 3
Jake LaRavia S 23 5 2 2
Jaxson Hayes 12 2 2 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 20 1 2 0
Maxi Kleber 1 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 34 25 8 3
Landry Shamet 26 23 3 1
Josh Hart S 36 20 4 2
Jalen Brunson S 37 12 7 13
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 11 13 4
Mikal Bridges S 30 10 0 2
Tyler Kolek 14 8 2 4
Mohamed Diawara 5 3 0 0
Ariel Hukporti 1 0 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 23 0 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes running layup (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
14%
2 OG Anunoby NY
10%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
8 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
6%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.4 7.3 9.0
2 Austin Reaves LAL 25.0 4.8 5.1
3 LeBron James LAL 24.5 6.5 6.2
4 Jalen Brunson NY 23.4 3.4 5.4
5 OG Anunoby NY 19.9 5.1 3.7
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.3 10.6 3.0
7 Mikal Bridges NY 17.0 3.5 3.7
8 Josh Hart NY 14.5 6.4 5.4
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.0 9.0 1.2
10 Marcus Smart LAL 11.6 3.2 2.3
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.2 2.8 1.1
12 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.2 3.8 2.2
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.9 3.7 0.8
14 Landry Shamet NY 6.7 1.9 1.5
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.6 9.8 1.1
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.2 1.7 1.0
17 Tyler Kolek NY 6.1 2.1 3.3
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.2 3.6 1.2
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.0 1.2 1.0
20 Drew Timme LAL 4.3 1.5 1.0
21 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.5 1.7 0.8
22 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.4 1.2 0.5
23 Dillon Jones NY 3.4 2.3 0.7
24 Guerschon Yabusele NY 2.9 2.0 0.7
25 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.8 1.8 0.7
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 2.3 0.6
27 Trey Jemison III NY 2.5 2.1 0.5
28 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 1.8 0.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.