NBA games

SAC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
112–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC14343430112
WSH23303528116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home WSH
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 35 35 6 2
DeMar DeRozan S 33 32 2 5
Maxime Raynaud S 27 14 6 1
Nique Clifford S 29 6 3 4
Dylan Cardwell 20 5 2 0
Precious Achiuwa S 9 5 4 0
Devin Carter 16 4 3 2
Malik Monk 17 4 4 2
Doug McDermott 6 3 0 0
Drew Eubanks 4 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley 30 18 6 6
AJ Johnson 27 17 1 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 21 15 1 3
Marvin Bagley III S 19 15 6 2
Khris Middleton S 18 13 1 3
Skal Labissiere 27 13 7 2
Jamir Watkins 16 8 6 0
Kyshawn George S 19 6 1 2
Bub Carrington S 23 6 2 6
Sharife Cooper 13 5 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Maxime Raynaud · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Maxime Raynaud makes 6-foot two point shot (Nique Clifford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
17%
2 Kyshawn George WSH
14%
3 Khris Middleton WSH
11%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
11%
5 Precious Achiuwa SAC
10%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
7 Justin Champagnie WSH
9%
8 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Nique Clifford SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
23%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.5 3.8 4.4
2 Kyshawn George WSH 20.0 6.2 5.5
3 Zach LaVine SAC 17.8 2.9 2.6
4 Malik Monk SAC 16.9 2.9 3.9
5 Bub Carrington WSH 13.6 3.6 5.7
6 Khris Middleton WSH 12.5 3.9 3.6
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.0 5.0 2.2
8 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.0 5.8 1.5
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC 10.0 6.9 1.6
10 Will Riley WSH 8.2 2.2 1.6
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.0 5.0 1.1
12 Nique Clifford SAC 7.5 3.9 1.6
13 Maxime Raynaud SAC 6.8 6.2 1.2
14 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.7 8.4 1.5
15 Malaki Branham WSH 5.8 1.9 1.2
16 Jamir Watkins WSH 5.8 4.4 1.2
17 Devin Carter SAC 4.6 1.8 1.3
18 Isaiah Stevens SAC 4.5 1.4 1.3
19 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 4.1 1.4 0.6
20 Anthony Gill WSH 3.5 2.4 0.6
21 Sharife Cooper WSH 3.2 1.0 0.9
22 AJ Johnson WSH 2.8 1.4 0.7
23 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.7 1.5 0.3
24 Doug McDermott SAC 2.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.