NBA games

UTAH @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
100107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH23332816100
TOR28233521107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home TOR
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 39 27 11 2
Isaiah Collier S 30 19 4 7
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 11 13 1
Cody Williams S 20 10 2 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 30 8 1 3
Walter Clayton Jr. 18 7 2 2
Kyle Filipowski 9 6 5 1
Kevin Love 15 4 5 2
Ace Bailey S 27 4 11 2
Brice Sensabaugh 19 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 28 21 6 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 30 20 6 0
Brandon Ingram S 35 19 5 3
Immanuel Quickley S 33 17 5 4
Scottie Barnes S 34 14 9 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 18 7 1 1
Jamal Shead 20 5 1 4
Collin Murray-Boyles S 24 4 5 1
Jamison Battle 4 0 1 0
Gradey Dick 11 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
3 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
5 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
7 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.9 6.0 4.9
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.2 6.4 3.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.8 8.8 7.4
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.8 5.4 7.1
5 RJ Barrett TOR 20.4 6.0 4.1
6 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 19.8 3.4 1.9
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 19.3 10.5 7.2
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 15.7 4.5 2.1
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 14.5 5.4 3.0
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.0 3.4 6.1
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 12.6 9.1 4.2
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.3 6.7 2.7
13 Gradey Dick TOR 10.2 3.8 1.4
14 Cody Williams UTAH 9.8 4.0 1.4
15 Jamal Shead TOR 9.8 3.1 5.9
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.1 3.4 1.4
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.3 2.5 1.8
18 Kevin Love UTAH 7.2 7.0 1.6
19 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.9 2.5 3.4
20 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.8 2.7 1.1
21 Kyle Anderson UTAH 6.5 3.4 2.7
22 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.9 2.5 1.0
23 Jamison Battle TOR 4.6 2.0 0.9
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.7 3.0 1.0
25 Garrett Temple TOR 3.3 1.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.