NBA games

CHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
91–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI1327222991
MIA34283933134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 30 16 4 3
Nikola Vucevic S 22 12 2 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 26 10 6 1
Julian Phillips 23 10 3 0
Isaac Okoro S 25 9 3 0
Patrick Williams 28 9 10 1
Dalen Terry 28 8 6 3
Yuki Kawamura 27 6 6 6
Matas Buzelis S 21 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 22 20 9 3
Pelle Larsson S 24 20 4 4
Kel'el Ware 18 17 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 24 14 3 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 14 5 1
Davion Mitchell S 21 13 2 6
Dru Smith 21 10 4 6
Keshad Johnson 12 9 4 1
Myron Gardner 23 5 7 2
Kasparas Jakucionis 19 4 1 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
2 Norman Powell MIA
9%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
6 Isaac Okoro CHI
6%
7 Pelle Larsson MIA
6%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
6%
9 Coby White CHI
6%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.0 9.5 3.8
2 Coby White CHI 21.2 4.1 5.9
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.0 8.6 4.9
4 Norman Powell MIA 21.0 4.0 3.1
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 19.9 4.0 4.5
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.4 6.1 3.8
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.8 5.0 3.5
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.9 5.8 5.5
9 Tre Jones CHI 13.8 3.5 6.9
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.7 5.1 3.5
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.5 3.0 1.9
12 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.3 4.4 1.7
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.0 2.7 5.8
14 Kevin Huerter CHI 8.9 4.0 3.1
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.9 3.3 1.4
16 Dru Smith MIA 6.8 3.4 2.5
17 Patrick Williams CHI 6.7 2.6 1.5
18 Kel'el Ware MIA 6.7 4.3 1.0
19 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.4 3.1 3.2
20 Yuki Kawamura CHI 5.4 3.4 3.2
21 Jahmir Young MIA 5.1 1.3 1.4
22 Dalen Terry CHI 5.0 2.3 1.3
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.9 3.4 1.1
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 1.6 0.7
25 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.6 1.6 0.6
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 1.9 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.