NBA games

BKN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
77–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2420181577
DET33343330130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DET
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas 23 12 3 3
Drake Powell 32 12 3 1
Nic Claxton S 17 10 2 1
Jalen Wilson 27 8 7 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 22 8 11 0
Danny Wolf S 29 6 10 4
E.J. Liddell 10 5 2 0
Nolan Traore S 17 5 1 2
Terance Mann S 20 4 2 1
Ben Saraf 19 4 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 24 21 10 3
Daniss Jenkins 20 18 4 1
Cade Cunningham S 26 18 4 12
Tobias Harris S 20 11 2 3
Marcus Sasser 15 10 0 4
Ausar Thompson S 25 9 8 3
Isaiah Stewart 21 9 1 1
Jaden Ivey 21 8 2 1
Duncan Robinson S 22 8 3 1
Javonte Green 19 8 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Egor Demin · Free Throw (1 pts) · 12:00 Q1
"Egor Demin makes technical free throw"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
16%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Nolan Traore BKN
8%
7 Terance Mann BKN
8%
8 Egor Demin BKN
8%
9 Danny Wolf BKN
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
25%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.8 4.4 10.3
2 Jalen Duren DET 17.7 10.3 2.2
3 Tobias Harris DET 13.9 4.5 2.4
4 Duncan Robinson DET 12.2 2.7 1.9
5 Egor Demin BKN 12.0 2.9 3.1
6 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.7 5.0 1.6
7 Cam Thomas BKN 10.9 2.5 3.8
8 Nic Claxton BKN 10.6 7.3 3.5
9 Nolan Traore BKN 9.8 2.2 3.6
10 Ausar Thompson DET 9.7 6.0 3.2
11 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.0 6.8 1.5
12 Ronald Holland II DET 8.7 4.3 1.8
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.4 2.4 4.9
14 Danny Wolf BKN 8.3 4.3 1.6
15 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 2.9 2.6
16 Jaden Ivey DET 7.8 2.6 1.3
17 Drake Powell BKN 6.7 1.9 1.5
18 Ben Saraf BKN 6.4 2.2 2.5
19 Javonte Green DET 6.2 3.1 0.8
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.6 2.1 0.8
21 Paul Reed DET 5.6 4.6 1.5
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.6 2.0 1.0
23 Marcus Sasser DET 4.2 1.0 1.3
24 E.J. Liddell BKN 1.9 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.