NBA games

ORL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
103–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL21401824103
SA37232626112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home SA
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 37 25 4 4
Paolo Banchero S 35 19 10 4
Anthony Black S 30 11 1 2
Jonathan Isaac 15 9 1 1
Moritz Wagner 8 8 0 0
Noah Penda 13 7 2 2
Tristan da Silva 28 7 5 3
Jalen Suggs S 32 5 6 6
Goga Bitadze 9 4 2 0
Jett Howard 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 28 25 8 2
Devin Vassell S 28 16 2 3
Dylan Harper 28 15 6 5
Keldon Johnson 25 14 10 1
De'Aaron Fox S 30 14 3 10
Julian Champagnie S 31 11 8 1
Harrison Barnes S 29 7 5 1
Carter Bryant 16 6 2 0
Harrison Ingram 2 2 0 0
Luke Kornet 18 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Anthony Black ORL
13%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Devin Vassell SA
7%
10 Moritz Wagner ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
35%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.9 10.0 5.9
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.5 10.6 2.2
3 Desmond Bane ORL 20.5 4.1 4.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.5 4.2 6.7
5 Anthony Black ORL 19.2 4.3 5.5
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.4 3.9 5.4
7 Julian Champagnie SA 12.7 5.5 1.6
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.6 6.0 2.5
9 Keldon Johnson SA 12.5 3.8 2.0
10 Devin Vassell SA 11.9 4.1 1.7
11 Dylan Harper SA 10.7 3.5 3.1
12 Harrison Barnes SA 8.2 2.3 1.9
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.7 2.3 1.4
14 Luke Kornet SA 6.5 6.6 1.4
15 Noah Penda ORL 6.2 4.2 1.3
16 Moritz Wagner ORL 5.9 2.3 0.7
17 Jase Richardson ORL 5.2 1.3 0.9
18 Stanley Umude SA 4.9 1.5 0.7
19 Tyus Jones ORL 4.2 1.5 2.4
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.9 4.9 0.6
21 Harrison Ingram SA 3.6 2.1 0.7
22 Carter Bryant SA 3.4 1.9 0.6
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.2 2.6 0.9
24 Lindy Waters III SA 2.8 1.0 0.8
25 Jett Howard ORL 2.4 1.0 0.7
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.2 1.1 0.7
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.1 1.0 0.7
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.0 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.