NBA games

MIL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
79–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2616191879
BOS26302229107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BOS
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 36 25 6 7
Kyle Kuzma S 34 16 5 2
Gary Trent Jr. 25 9 1 0
Bobby Portis S 37 8 12 3
Myles Turner S 26 7 4 1
Pete Nance 18 7 4 0
AJ Green S 29 3 2 1
Jericho Sims 4 2 0 0
Cole Anthony 15 2 2 3
Andre Jackson Jr. 8 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 29 30 13 2
Anfernee Simons 25 27 3 1
Derrick White S 32 17 7 8
Neemias Queta S 31 14 8 4
Payton Pritchard S 27 7 3 5
Jordan Walsh 20 6 5 3
Luka Garza 13 3 2 0
Sam Hauser S 27 3 1 1
Josh Minott 1 0 0 0
Amari Williams 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Rollins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Ryan Rollins makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
2 Myles Turner MIL
10%
3 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
5 Bobby Portis MIL
9%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
7 Amari Williams BOS
8%
8 AJ Green MIL
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
18%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.1 8.1 5.7
2 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.6 3.9 5.3
3 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.3 3.3 2.4
4 Derrick White BOS 14.4 5.9 5.7
5 Sam Hauser BOS 14.2 5.1 2.4
6 Bobby Portis MIL 13.7 6.5 2.5
7 Myles Turner MIL 13.4 5.9 1.6
8 Ryan Rollins MIL 13.1 5.4 4.2
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.1 4.4 2.5
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.6 8.4 1.9
11 AJ Green MIL 9.0 2.5 1.8
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.6 4.4 1.6
13 Cole Anthony MIL 6.1 2.3 1.8
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.0 3.4 1.5
15 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.6 3.1 0.8
16 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.1 3.7 0.9
17 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.0 1.2 1.3
18 Josh Minott BOS 4.1 1.8 0.9
19 Chris Boucher BOS 3.8 3.1 0.6
20 Pete Nance MIL 3.8 2.2 0.6
21 Amari Williams BOS 2.8 2.9 0.6
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.1 0.6
23 Jericho Sims MIL 2.3 2.4 0.5
24 Amir Coffey MIL 2.2 0.8 0.3
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 0.9 0.3
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.