NBA games

DAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
107–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28233125107
HOU31282824111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home HOU
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 39 34 12 5
Daniel Gafford S 28 16 11 1
Brandon Williams 9 13 0 0
Max Christie S 32 11 2 1
Klay Thompson 28 9 2 0
P.J. Washington S 25 9 4 1
Naji Marshall S 32 8 8 2
Caleb Martin 17 4 4 5
Moussa Cisse 13 3 1 1
Dwight Powell 6 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 41 21 8 9
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 19 8 2
Tari Eason S 31 17 7 3
Alperen Sengun S 35 14 14 7
Josh Okogie 21 13 5 1
Kevin Durant S 38 13 5 8
Clint Capela 13 6 4 1
Reed Sheppard 17 6 1 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 10 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
4 Cooper Flagg DAL
9%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
9 Max Christie DAL
6%
10 Tari Eason HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 27.7 6.0 5.3
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.3 10.8 6.4
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 22.2 7.0 4.4
4 Naji Marshall DAL 22.0 6.0 4.9
5 Amen Thompson HOU 17.2 7.5 6.0
6 Brandon Williams DAL 16.6 4.0 3.3
7 Max Christie DAL 15.7 3.8 2.5
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.3 6.8 2.1
9 Klay Thompson DAL 12.9 3.0 2.2
10 Tari Eason HOU 12.9 7.4 1.9
11 P.J. Washington DAL 11.6 6.1 1.6
12 Reed Sheppard HOU 10.2 2.7 2.0
13 Caleb Martin DAL 8.2 4.4 2.8
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.6 7.2 0.9
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.3 1.6 1.4
16 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.6 1.9 4.3
17 Josh Okogie HOU 6.1 3.5 1.2
18 Dwight Powell DAL 5.9 6.3 1.4
19 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.2 6.3 0.5
20 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.5 2.3 0.8
21 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.4 2.0 0.7
22 D'Angelo Russell DAL 4.1 1.1 1.7
23 Clint Capela HOU 3.7 4.8 0.7
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 1.6 0.6
25 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.9 1.1 0.8
26 Jeff Green HOU 2.9 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.