NBA games

MIN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
131–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN30283934131
MEM21283035114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MEM
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 33 2 3
Julius Randle S 35 27 7 7
Naz Reid 31 20 9 5
Jaden McDaniels S 34 20 4 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 18 11 1 5
Rudy Gobert S 31 9 16 0
Jaylen Clark 17 5 2 0
Bones Hyland 13 4 1 4
Joan Beringer 5 2 0 0
Mike Conley 18 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome S 20 20 1 6
GG Jackson 28 19 4 5
Jaylen Wells S 27 15 6 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 22 13 5 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 21 12 2 1
Cedric Coward S 27 8 6 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 23 8 4 0
Jock Landale S 26 7 8 2
Javon Small 22 7 4 6
Cam Spencer 25 5 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ty Jerome · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Ty Jerome makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
12%
2 Cedric Coward MEM
12%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Jock Landale MEM
10%
8 Ty Jerome MEM
9%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
10 Cam Spencer MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.5 5.9 4.6
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.6 6.1 4.5
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.6 4.9 3.6
4 Cedric Coward MEM 15.5 5.6 3.0
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.4 6.7 3.0
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.3 5.3 4.9
7 Jock Landale MEM 13.1 7.6 2.1
8 Cam Spencer MEM 11.4 3.1 7.1
9 GG Jackson MEM 10.7 3.6 1.5
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.0 3.6 1.5
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.3 10.2 1.7
12 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.0 3.4 3.6
13 Ty Jerome MEM 8.5 2.2 2.8
14 Bones Hyland MIN 7.9 2.3 2.3
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.9 2.6 1.9
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.8 2.2 1.1
17 Mike Conley MIN 5.0 1.9 2.2
18 John Konchar MEM 4.8 3.5 1.4
19 Joan Beringer MIN 4.3 3.3 0.7
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.9 2.3 1.0
21 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.7 1.8 0.7
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.7 1.5 1.0
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 1.9 0.5
24 Javon Small MEM 3.5 1.1 2.2
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.