NBA games

NO @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
114–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO33212733114
PHI31362037124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home PHI
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 32 34 6 3
Trey Murphy III S 38 19 9 2
Jeremiah Fears 21 12 4 1
Zion Williamson S 30 11 5 2
Jose Alvarado 18 10 2 3
Derik Queen S 19 9 6 2
Yves Missi 28 7 8 3
Micah Peavy 9 5 0 1
Herbert Jones S 31 5 1 5
Karlo Matkovic 16 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 39 40 11 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 30 19 10 4
Tyrese Maxey S 35 18 5 8
VJ Edgecombe S 37 15 3 5
Jared McCain 17 12 2 1
Dominick Barlow S 28 8 3 0
Trendon Watford 17 5 6 4
Quentin Grimes 16 4 4 2
Adem Bona 13 3 6 0
Jabari Walker 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 3-foot two point shot (VJ Edgecombe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
17%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
5 Zion Williamson NO
10%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 Derik Queen NO
9%
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
6%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
22%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 29.6 8.5 5.6
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.8 3.7 7.0
3 Trey Murphy III NO 22.3 4.7 4.9
4 Zion Williamson NO 22.0 8.0 4.0
5 Saddiq Bey NO 20.0 5.8 3.0
6 Paul George PHI 17.0 4.6 4.3
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 13.3 4.9 4.0
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.2 4.0 1.9
9 Derik Queen NO 11.5 7.3 4.7
10 Jeremiah Fears NO 9.9 4.0 2.5
11 Herbert Jones NO 9.5 3.5 2.3
12 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.2 3.5 2.4
13 Jordan Poole NO 9.0 1.8 1.9
14 Yves Missi NO 7.9 7.3 1.4
15 Jose Alvarado NO 7.3 2.9 2.9
16 Micah Peavy NO 6.2 2.7 1.5
17 Dominick Barlow PHI 5.9 3.5 1.1
18 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.7 3.2 0.8
19 Jared McCain PHI 5.5 1.3 1.2
20 Andre Drummond PHI 5.3 5.4 0.8
21 Eric Gordon PHI 5.0 1.1 0.7
22 Justin Edwards PHI 4.3 1.5 0.8
23 Adem Bona PHI 4.3 4.1 0.6
24 Jabari Walker PHI 3.6 2.1 0.7
25 Kevon Looney NO 3.0 5.1 0.9
26 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.0 1.6 0.5
27 Trendon Watford PHI 2.6 1.8 1.1
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.6 0.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.