NBA games

ATL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
124–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL39342724124
IND35452326129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home IND
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 36 33 11 10
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 21 3 5
CJ McCollum 29 18 4 2
Mouhamed Gueye S 32 15 4 0
Corey Kispert 22 11 2 1
Luke Kennard 18 11 0 0
Dyson Daniels S 29 8 8 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 7 3 0
Christian Koloko 16 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 32 26 6 10
Pascal Siakam S 33 25 6 1
Aaron Nesmith S 34 23 1 1
Jay Huff 31 16 6 0
Bennedict Mathurin 32 14 5 4
Jarace Walker S 26 11 10 4
Ben Sheppard 18 8 7 3
T.J. McConnell 16 6 3 4
Isaiah Jackson 6 0 5 1
Johnny Furphy S 13 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes driving layup (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
7 Jarace Walker IND
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
9 Christian Koloko ATL
8%
10 Corey Kispert ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
40%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 25.4 7.8 5.5
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.1 10.7 6.3
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 21.2 4.6 9.3
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.6 3.7 4.2
5 CJ McCollum ATL 19.1 4.1 3.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.3 5.0 2.3
7 Jarace Walker IND 14.0 4.3 2.6
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.5 5.3 3.0
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.7 7.4 6.4
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.8 3.6 1.2
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.7 2.6 5.0
12 Corey Kispert ATL 8.9 2.5 1.6
13 Luke Kennard ATL 8.5 3.0 1.6
14 Jay Huff IND 8.3 4.1 1.2
15 Johnny Furphy IND 7.7 5.9 1.7
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.5 3.6 1.4
17 Vit Krejci ATL 5.4 1.8 1.0
18 Micah Potter IND 5.4 3.4 1.1
19 Quenton Jackson IND 5.2 1.6 1.3
20 Christian Koloko ATL 5.2 4.2 0.9
21 Ben Sheppard IND 5.0 1.5 1.4
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.4 1.4 1.0
23 Asa Newell ATL 4.4 2.8 0.7
24 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.8 4.3 0.8
25 Kam Jones IND 2.1 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.