NBA games

SA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
106–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30172831106
CHA26352426111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CHA
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dylan Harper 23 20 1 2
Stephon Castle S 35 16 5 9
Victor Wembanyama S 31 16 8 1
Devin Vassell S 30 13 5 2
Julian Champagnie S 29 13 5 1
De'Aaron Fox S 32 11 2 7
Harrison Barnes 25 11 3 2
Keldon Johnson 16 6 2 1
Luke Kornet 19 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 35 26 8 2
Collin Sexton 18 21 0 3
LaMelo Ball S 32 16 8 8
Miles Bridges S 31 14 6 2
Kon Knueppel S 35 13 6 4
Moussa Diabate S 33 12 10 6
Ryan Kalkbrenner 14 6 4 0
Grant Williams 18 3 4 2
Josh Green 11 0 1 2
Sion James 12 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 19-foot jumper (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
11%
5 Stephon Castle SA
10%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
10%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
36%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.3 5.1 4.1
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.2 10.1 2.0
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.7 4.7 6.3
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.8 6.2 3.9
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 17.6 4.1 6.8
6 Miles Bridges CHA 14.7 4.9 2.9
7 Stephon Castle SA 14.6 4.2 6.7
8 Keldon Johnson SA 12.6 4.3 2.0
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.3 5.9 1.6
10 Collin Sexton CHA 11.0 2.6 3.2
11 Devin Vassell SA 10.8 3.8 1.7
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.7 9.2 1.5
13 Dylan Harper SA 9.2 3.4 2.9
14 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.1 5.2 1.2
15 Harrison Barnes SA 7.3 1.9 1.8
16 Luke Kornet SA 6.1 6.4 1.2
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.8 4.4 1.0
18 Sion James CHA 5.6 3.4 2.1
19 Grant Williams CHA 5.4 3.1 1.1
20 Josh Green CHA 5.1 2.6 1.3
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.4 1.3 1.1
22 Carter Bryant SA 3.5 1.9 0.5
23 Lindy Waters III SA 3.0 1.1 0.7
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.3 1.1 0.6
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.1 1.0 0.5
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.0 1.0 0.6
27 Pat Connaughton CHA 1.6 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.