NBA games

DET @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
131–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET45323123131
GS37273129124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home GS
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 29 4 11
Jalen Duren S 30 21 13 3
Tobias Harris S 34 15 8 3
Duncan Robinson S 30 15 2 2
Isaiah Stewart 24 14 5 3
Daniss Jenkins 17 12 2 4
Jaden Ivey 18 9 4 2
Ausar Thompson S 29 7 8 2
Ronald Holland II 16 6 4 1
Javonte Green 8 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 25 23 1 2
De'Anthony Melton 26 18 5 3
Gui Santos 25 16 1 1
Draymond Green S 33 15 6 7
Al Horford S 23 13 7 3
Moses Moody S 25 11 4 0
Brandin Podziemski S 28 11 8 8
Buddy Hield 17 10 4 2
Quinten Post 14 6 2 1
Pat Spencer 8 1 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Al Horford · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Al Horford makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Stephen Curry GS
12%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Al Horford GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
8%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.2 4.8 10.1
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.1 3.4 6.5
3 Jalen Duren DET 17.0 10.1 2.2
4 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.8 3.4 2.7
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.2 4.8 4.6
6 Tobias Harris DET 12.6 4.0 2.2
7 Moses Moody GS 12.4 3.7 1.7
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.6 2.6 1.7
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.3 5.6 1.4
10 Draymond Green GS 9.7 4.7 4.8
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.4 6.1 3.2
12 Ronald Holland II DET 9.1 4.4 1.6
13 Al Horford GS 8.3 6.0 3.0
14 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.3 2.4 4.6
15 Buddy Hield GS 7.7 2.3 1.4
16 Jaden Ivey DET 7.5 2.5 1.3
17 Quinten Post GS 7.4 3.7 1.0
18 Javonte Green DET 6.8 3.0 0.9
19 Will Richard GS 6.5 2.2 2.3
20 Gui Santos GS 6.3 3.2 1.8
21 Paul Reed DET 5.5 4.6 1.5
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.7 2.5 0.9
23 Marcus Sasser DET 4.3 1.1 1.3
24 Pat Spencer GS 3.9 1.5 2.5
25 Chaz Lanier DET 3.8 1.5 0.8
26 Bobi Klintman DET 3.6 2.0 0.9
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.3 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.